Week 1 NFL player projection
Mike Evans
PROJECTION
Mike Evans is a SF WR facing LA in Week 1. He averaged 46 receiving yards across 8 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 132. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE MIKE EVANS IS TRENDING
The trend on Mike Evans points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 74.9 in 2022 to 46 in 2025 — down 39%.
Availability is part of the story: 8 games on record in 2025, best of 132 in Week 15, worst of 0.
Measured against this week's 72.7 projection, he cleared it in 1 of 8 games last season.
Split his 8 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 35 receiving yards per game early, then 57 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
73
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5.9
Receptions
SF vs LA · Thu, Sep 10 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
46
Receiving Yards / game
1/8
games clearing this projection
62
targets
67%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (33.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (72.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 132 receiving yards in Week 15 against ATL; the quietest was 0 in Week 7 against DET. He finished above his own 46-per-game average in 3 of 8 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 3 of 8 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 22 yards. That single play is worth about 48% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 81% of snaps across his first 2 recorded games, then 75% across his last 2 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 62 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB vs ATL | 5/8 | 51 | 0 | 83% | 14 |
| 2 | TB vs HOU | 5/11 | 56 | 0 | 79% | 22 |
| 3 | TB vs NYJ | 4/9 | 33 | 1 | 72% | 14 |
| 7 | TB vs DET | 0/4 | 0 | 0 | 20% | -- |
| 15 | TB vs ATL | 6/12 | 132 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | TB vs CAR | 5/9 | 31 | 1 | 66% | 12 |
| 17 | TB vs MIA | 3/7 | 31 | 1 | 75% | 16 |
| 18 | TB vs CAR | 2/2 | 34 | 0 | 75% | 21 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 15 | 127 | 1,124 | 74.9 | 6 | 17.6 |
| 2023 | 17 | 136 | 1,255 | 73.8 | 13 | 18.9 |
| 2024 | 14 | 110 | 1,004 | 71.7 | 11 | 19.8 |
| 2025 | 8 | 62 | 368 | 46 | 3 | 12.1 |
CAREER VS LA
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Wk 9 | TB | 5/11 | 40 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Mike Evans is tagged as WR1 for SF. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with LA ranked #23 vs WR and allowing 26.7 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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