Week 1 NFL player projection
Ricky Pearsall
PROJECTION
Ricky Pearsall is a SF WR facing LA in Week 1. He averaged 59 receiving yards across 9 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 117. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
66
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5.7
Receptions
SF vs LA · Thu, Sep 10 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Ricky Pearsall is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 40 in 2024 to 58.7 in 2025 — up 47% — on 46 then 53 targets.
Measured against this week's 65.6 projection, he cleared it in 4 of 9 games last season.
Split his 9 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 81.8 receiving yards per game early, then 40.2 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
58.7
Receiving Yards / game
4/9
games clearing this projection
53
targets
81%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (56). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (65.6). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 117 receiving yards in Week 3 against ARI; the quietest was 0 in Week 11 against ARI. He finished above his own 59-per-game average in 4 of 9 games.
He did not account for a touchdown in any of his 9 recorded 2025 games, so none of the projection above leans on touchdown equity.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 45 yards. That single play is worth about 77% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 87% across his first 2 recorded games and 84% across his last 2. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 53 targets and 2 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF vs SEA | 4/7 | 108 | 0 | 84% | 45 |
| 2 | SF vs NO | 4/6 | 56 | 0 | 89% | 15 |
| 3 | SF vs ARI | 8/11 | 117 | 0 | 97% | 34 |
| 4 | SF vs JAX | 4/5 | 46 | 0 | 56% | 31 |
| 11 | SF vs ARI | 1/2 | 0 | 0 | 75% | -- |
| 12 | SF vs CAR | 2/4 | 6 | 0 | 76% | 6 |
| 13 | SF vs CLE | 2/3 | 14 | 0 | 87% | 13 |
| 15 | SF vs TEN | 6/7 | 96 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 17 | SF vs CHI | 5/8 | 85 | 0 | 81% | 30 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 10 | 46 | 400 | 40 | 3 | 10.9 |
| 2025 | 9 | 53 | 528 | 58.7 | 0 | 11.5 |
CAREER VS LA
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 15 | SF | 1/4 | 16 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Ricky Pearsall is tagged as WR2 rotation for SF. The page uses top-2 WR projection volume for SF, then layers in a softer prior matchup with LA ranked #23 vs WR and allowing 26.7 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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