Week 1 NFL player projection
Christian McCaffrey
PROJECTION
Christian McCaffrey is a SF RB facing LA in Week 1. He averaged 71 rushing yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 23 to 140. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
55
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.7
Receptions
SF vs LA · Thu, Sep 10 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Christian McCaffrey has been consistent rather than trending. 70.7 rushing yards per game in 2025, compared with 67 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 55.1 projection, he cleared it in 9 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 61.2 rushing yards per game early, then 79.1 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
70.7
Rushing Yards / game
9/17
games clearing this projection
129
targets
83%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (57). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (55.1). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 140 rushing yards in Week 17 against CHI; the quietest was 23 in Week 18 against SEA. He finished above his own 71-per-game average in 7 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 12 of 17 games, and more than one in 4 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 41 yards. That single play is worth about 58% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 83% across his first 5 recorded games and 83% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 129 targets and 311 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF vs SEA | 9/10 | 69 | 0 | 76% | 25 |
| 2 | SF vs NO | 6/7 | 55 | 1 | 77% | 14 |
| 3 | SF vs ARI | 10/15 | 52 | 0 | 91% | 20 |
| 4 | SF vs JAX | 6/11 | 49 | 1 | 85% | 29 |
| 5 | SF vs LA | 8/9 | 57 | 1 | 88% | 16 |
| 6 | SF vs TB | 7/8 | 54 | 1 | 93% | 23 |
| 7 | SF vs ATL | 7/8 | 129 | 2 | 75% | 17 |
| 8 | SF vs HOU | 3/6 | 25 | 0 | 96% | 27 |
| 9 | SF vs NYG | 5/6 | 106 | 2 | 86% | 39 |
| 10 | SF vs LA | 8/10 | 30 | 0 | 78% | 19 |
| 11 | SF vs ARI | 5/6 | 81 | 3 | 71% | 20 |
| 12 | SF vs CAR | 7/7 | 89 | 1 | 83% | 19 |
| 13 | SF vs CLE | 4/4 | 53 | 1 | 79% | 12 |
| 15 | SF vs TEN | 1/1 | 73 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | SF vs IND | 6/8 | 117 | 2 | 80% | 24 |
| 17 | SF vs CHI | 4/6 | 140 | 1 | 85% | 41 |
| 18 | SF vs SEA | 6/7 | 23 | 0 | 86% | 9 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 108 | 1,139 | 67 | 14 | 23.6 |
| 2023 | 16 | 83 | 1,459 | 91.2 | 21 | 26.7 |
| 2024 | 4 | 19 | 202 | 50.5 | 0 | 14.1 |
| 2025 | 17 | 129 | 1,202 | 70.7 | 17 | 27.5 |
CAREER VS LA
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 10 | SF | 8/10 | 30 | 0 |
| 2025 | Wk 5 | SF | 8/9 | 57 | 1 |
| 2023 | Wk 2 | SF | 3/3 | 116 | 1 |
| 2022 | Wk 8 | SF | 8/9 | 94 | 3 |
| 2022 | Wk 6 | CAR | 7/8 | 69 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Christian McCaffrey is tagged as RB1 for SF. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with LA ranked #10 vs RB and allowing 18.0 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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