Week 1 NFL player projection
Courtland Sutton
PROJECTION
Courtland Sutton is a DEN WR facing KC in Week 1. He averaged 60 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 5 to 118. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
73
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5.9
Receptions
DEN vs KC · Mon, Sep 14 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Courtland Sutton has been consistent rather than trending. 59.8 receiving yards per game in 2025, compared with 55.3 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 72.6 projection, he cleared it in 6 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 67 receiving yards per game early, then 53.4 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
59.8
Receiving Yards / game
6/17
games clearing this projection
124
targets
85%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (62). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (72.6). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 118 receiving yards in Week 3 against LAC; the quietest was 5 in Week 18 against LAC. He finished above his own 60-per-game average in 10 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 7 of 17 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 52 yards. That single play is worth about 87% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 87% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 80% across his last 5 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 124 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN vs TEN | 6/9 | 61 | 1 | 95% | 22 |
| 2 | DEN vs IND | 1/4 | 6 | 0 | 78% | 6 |
| 3 | DEN vs LAC | 6/8 | 118 | 1 | 81% | 52 |
| 4 | DEN vs CIN | 5/6 | 81 | 1 | 85% | 22 |
| 5 | DEN vs PHI | 8/10 | 99 | 0 | 95% | 34 |
| 6 | DEN vs NYJ | 1/3 | 17 | 0 | 80% | 17 |
| 7 | DEN vs NYG | 6/10 | 87 | 0 | 94% | 32 |
| 8 | DEN vs DAL | 4/6 | 67 | 0 | 84% | 39 |
| 9 | DEN vs HOU | 1/6 | 30 | 1 | 92% | 30 |
| 10 | DEN vs LV | 3/4 | 24 | 0 | 87% | 14 |
| 11 | DEN vs KC | 4/8 | 59 | 0 | 92% | 21 |
| 13 | DEN vs WAS | 5/6 | 62 | 1 | 81% | 31 |
| 14 | DEN vs LV | 6/10 | 62 | 0 | 65% | 14 |
| 15 | DEN vs GB | 7/10 | 113 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | DEN vs JAX | 6/12 | 86 | 1 | 94% | 21 |
| 17 | DEN vs KC | 4/10 | 40 | 0 | 82% | 23 |
| 18 | DEN vs LAC | 1/2 | 5 | 0 | 78% | 5 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 15 | 109 | 829 | 55.3 | 2 | 12.8 |
| 2023 | 16 | 90 | 772 | 48.2 | 10 | 13.9 |
| 2024 | 16 | 135 | 1,081 | 67.6 | 9 | 17.7 |
| 2025 | 17 | 124 | 1,017 | 59.8 | 7 | 14.8 |
CAREER VS KC
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 17 | DEN | 4/10 | 40 | 0 |
| 2025 | Wk 11 | DEN | 4/8 | 59 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 18 | DEN | 5/7 | 98 | 1 |
| 2024 | Wk 10 | DEN | 6/9 | 70 | 1 |
| 2023 | Wk 8 | DEN | 2/3 | 29 | 1 |
| 2023 | Wk 6 | DEN | 4/6 | 46 | 1 |
| 2022 | Wk 17 | DEN | 4/6 | 44 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Courtland Sutton is tagged as WR1 for DEN. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with KC ranked #11 vs WR and allowing 21.9 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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