Week 1 NFL player projection
Pat Bryant
PROJECTION
Pat Bryant is a DEN WR facing KC in Week 1. He averaged 29 receiving yards across 13 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 82. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
57
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.6
Receptions
DEN vs KC · Mon, Sep 14 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
The record on Pat Bryant is short: 13 games in 2025 for 378 receiving yards. That is too small a sample to call a trend, so the projection leans on role and matchup rather than his own history.
Measured against this week's 57.2 projection, he cleared it in 1 of 13 games last season.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
29.1
Receiving Yards / game
1/13
games clearing this projection
49
targets
53%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (31). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (57.2). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 82 receiving yards in Week 11 against KC; the quietest was 0 in Week 5 against PHI. He finished above his own 29-per-game average in 7 of 13 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 1 of 13 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 48 yards. That single play is worth about 165% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 42% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 62% across his last 4 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 49 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | DEN vs IND | 2/3 | 18 | 0 | 24% | 12 |
| 4 | DEN vs CIN | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 33% | -- |
| 5 | DEN vs PHI | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 54% | -- |
| 6 | DEN vs NYJ | 2/2 | 22 | 0 | 58% | 11 |
| 7 | DEN vs NYG | 1/4 | 6 | 0 | 51% | 6 |
| 8 | DEN vs DAL | 2/4 | 40 | 1 | 56% | 24 |
| 9 | DEN vs HOU | 2/3 | 20 | 0 | 57% | 13 |
| 10 | DEN vs LV | 1/2 | 43 | 0 | 49% | 43 |
| 11 | DEN vs KC | 5/6 | 82 | 0 | 56% | 48 |
| 13 | DEN vs WAS | 3/7 | 42 | 0 | 70% | 21 |
| 14 | DEN vs LV | 4/4 | 32 | 0 | 47% | 13 |
| 16 | DEN vs JAX | 5/8 | 42 | 0 | 64% | 13 |
| 18 | DEN vs LAC | 4/5 | 31 | 0 | 66% | 11 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13 | 49 | 378 | 29.1 | 1 | 6.9 |
CAREER VS KC
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 11 | DEN | 5/6 | 82 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Pat Bryant is tagged as WR4 rotation for DEN. The page uses top-4 WR projection volume for DEN, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with KC ranked #11 vs WR and allowing 21.9 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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