Week 1 NFL player projection
Troy Franklin
PROJECTION
Troy Franklin is a DEN WR facing KC in Week 1. He averaged 42 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 89. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
54
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.7
Receptions
DEN vs KC · Mon, Sep 14 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Troy Franklin is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 16.4 in 2024 to 41.7 in 2025 — up 154% — on 53 then 104 targets.
Measured against this week's 54.1 projection, he cleared it in 6 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 44.8 receiving yards per game early, then 39 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
41.7
Receiving Yards / game
6/17
games clearing this projection
104
targets
60%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (35). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (54.1). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 89 receiving yards in Week 2 against IND; the quietest was 0 in Week 18 against LAC. He finished above his own 42-per-game average in 7 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 5 of 17 games, and more than one in 1 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 48 yards. That single play is worth about 115% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 68% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 45% across his last 5 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 104 targets and 5 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN vs TEN | 4/6 | 44 | 0 | 59% | 18 |
| 2 | DEN vs IND | 8/9 | 89 | 1 | 83% | 42 |
| 3 | DEN vs LAC | 2/4 | 8 | 0 | 79% | 7 |
| 4 | DEN vs CIN | 4/8 | 55 | 0 | 58% | 23 |
| 5 | DEN vs PHI | 3/5 | 35 | 0 | 59% | 20 |
| 6 | DEN vs NYJ | 3/4 | 19 | 0 | 58% | 7 |
| 7 | DEN vs NYG | 3/10 | 19 | 1 | 62% | 12 |
| 8 | DEN vs DAL | 6/8 | 89 | 2 | 63% | 26 |
| 9 | DEN vs HOU | 4/10 | 27 | 0 | 79% | 13 |
| 10 | DEN vs LV | 5/9 | 40 | 1 | 74% | 18 |
| 11 | DEN vs KC | 4/8 | 84 | 0 | 66% | 35 |
| 13 | DEN vs WAS | 2/3 | 21 | 0 | 53% | 17 |
| 14 | DEN vs LV | 3/4 | 11 | 0 | 26% | 6 |
| 15 | DEN vs GB | 6/6 | 85 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | DEN vs JAX | 4/5 | 66 | 0 | 64% | 48 |
| 17 | DEN vs KC | 4/4 | 17 | 0 | 38% | 6 |
| 18 | DEN vs LAC | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 42% | -- |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16 | 53 | 263 | 16.4 | 2 | 5.1 |
| 2025 | 17 | 104 | 709 | 41.7 | 6 | 11.9 |
CAREER VS KC
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 17 | DEN | 4/4 | 17 | 0 |
| 2025 | Wk 11 | DEN | 4/8 | 84 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 18 | DEN | 2/2 | 12 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 10 | DEN | 1/3 | 9 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Troy Franklin is tagged as WR3 rotation for DEN. The page uses top-3 WR projection volume for DEN, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with KC ranked #11 vs WR and allowing 21.9 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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