Week 1 NFL player projection
J.K. Dobbins
PROJECTION
J.K. Dobbins is a DEN RB facing KC in Week 1. He averaged 77 rushing yards across 10 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 40 to 111. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
63
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1.4
Receptions
DEN vs KC · Mon, Sep 14 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
J.K. Dobbins has been consistent rather than trending. 77.2 rushing yards per game in 2025, compared with 65 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 62.6 projection, he cleared it in 8 of 10 games last season.
Split his 10 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 80.4 rushing yards per game early, then 74 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
77.2
Rushing Yards / game
8/10
games clearing this projection
14
targets
51%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (78). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (62.6). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 111 rushing yards in Week 8 against DAL; the quietest was 40 in Week 6 against NYJ. He finished above his own 77-per-game average in 5 of 10 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 4 of 10 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 41 yards. That single play is worth about 53% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 55% across his first 3 recorded games and 50% across his last 3. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 14 targets and 153 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN vs TEN | 2/2 | 63 | 1 | 53% | 19 |
| 2 | DEN vs IND | 1/2 | 76 | 1 | 45% | 23 |
| 3 | DEN vs LAC | 1/2 | 83 | 1 | 67% | 41 |
| 4 | DEN vs CIN | 1/1 | 101 | 0 | 44% | 16 |
| 5 | DEN vs PHI | 1/1 | 79 | 1 | 53% | 17 |
| 6 | DEN vs NYJ | 0/1 | 40 | 0 | 50% | 8 |
| 7 | DEN vs NYG | 1/1 | 81 | 0 | 49% | 32 |
| 8 | DEN vs DAL | 2/2 | 111 | 0 | 52% | 25 |
| 9 | DEN vs HOU | 1/1 | 61 | 0 | 46% | 12 |
| 10 | DEN vs LV | 1/1 | 77 | 0 | 52% | 13 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 8 | 8 | 520 | 65 | 3 | 10.6 |
| 2023 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 22 | 1 | 12.7 |
| 2024 | 13 | 38 | 905 | 69.6 | 9 | 16 |
| 2025 | 10 | 14 | 772 | 77.2 | 4 | 12.1 |
CAREER VS KC
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 4 | LAC | 3/4 | 32 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
J.K. Dobbins is tagged as RB1 for DEN. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with KC ranked #6 vs RB and allowing 17.4 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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