Week 1 NFL player projection
Dak Prescott
PROJECTION
Dak Prescott is a DAL QB facing NYG in Week 1. He averaged 268 passing yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 70 to 376. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
225
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
DAL vs NYG · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Dak Prescott has been consistent rather than trending. 267.8 passing yards per game in 2025, compared with 238.3 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 224.5 projection, he cleared it in 14 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 258.6 passing yards per game early, then 275.9 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
267.8
Passing Yards / game
14/17
games clearing this projection
32
touchdowns
95%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (264). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (224.5). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 376 passing yards in Week 14 against DET; the quietest was 70 in Week 18 against NYG. He finished above his own 268-per-game average in 8 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 13 of 17 games, and more than one in 10 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 86 yards. That single play is worth about 32% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 97% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 88% across his last 5 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
He also carried the ball 53 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL vs PHI | 0/0 | 188 | 0 | 100% | 32 |
| 2 | DAL vs NYG | 0/0 | 361 | 2 | 100% | 33 |
| 3 | DAL vs CHI | 0/0 | 251 | 1 | 86% | 37 |
| 4 | DAL vs GB | 0/0 | 319 | 4 | 100% | 34 |
| 5 | DAL vs NYJ | 0/0 | 237 | 4 | 100% | 46 |
| 6 | DAL vs CAR | 0/0 | 261 | 3 | 100% | 45 |
| 7 | DAL vs WAS | 0/0 | 264 | 3 | 100% | 74 |
| 8 | DAL vs DEN | 0/0 | 188 | 0 | 88% | 29 |
| 9 | DAL vs ARI | 0/0 | 250 | 1 | 100% | 33 |
| 11 | DAL vs LV | 0/0 | 268 | 4 | 100% | 37 |
| 12 | DAL vs PHI | 0/0 | 354 | 3 | 100% | 48 |
| 13 | DAL vs KC | 0/0 | 320 | 2 | 100% | 51 |
| 14 | DAL vs DET | 0/0 | 376 | 1 | 100% | 42 |
| 15 | DAL vs MIN | 0/0 | 294 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | DAL vs LAC | 0/0 | 244 | 2 | 91% | 38 |
| 17 | DAL vs WAS | 0/0 | 307 | 2 | 100% | 86 |
| 18 | DAL vs NYG | 0/0 | 70 | 0 | 51% | 23 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12 | 0 | 2,860 | 238.3 | 24 | 20.5 |
| 2023 | 17 | 0 | 4,516 | 265.6 | 38 | 24.3 |
| 2024 | 8 | 0 | 1,978 | 247.2 | 12 | 17.4 |
| 2025 | 17 | 0 | 4,552 | 267.8 | 32 | 21.8 |
CAREER VS NYG
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 18 | DAL | 0/0 | 70 | 0 |
| 2025 | Wk 2 | DAL | 0/0 | 361 | 2 |
| 2024 | Wk 4 | DAL | 0/0 | 221 | 2 |
| 2023 | Wk 10 | DAL | 0/0 | 404 | 5 |
| 2023 | Wk 1 | DAL | 0/0 | 143 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 12 | DAL | 0/0 | 261 | 2 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Dak Prescott is tagged as starter for DAL. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with NYG ranked #24 vs QB and allowing 18.2 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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