Week 1 NFL player projection
CeeDee Lamb
PROJECTION
CeeDee Lamb is a DAL WR facing NYG in Week 1. He averaged 83 receiving yards across 13 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 4 to 121. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
74
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5.9
Receptions
DAL vs NYG · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
CeeDee Lamb has been consistent rather than trending. 82.8 receiving yards per game in 2025, compared with 79.9 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 73.8 projection, he cleared it in 9 of 13 games last season.
Split his 13 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 92.8 receiving yards per game early, then 74.3 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
82.8
Receiving Yards / game
9/13
games clearing this projection
117
targets
77%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (85). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (73.8). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 121 receiving yards in Week 14 against DET; the quietest was 4 in Week 18 against NYG. He finished above his own 83-per-game average in 7 of 13 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 3 of 13 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 74 yards. That single play is worth about 89% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 84% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 66% across his last 4 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 117 targets and 1 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL vs PHI | 7/13 | 110 | 0 | 92% | 32 |
| 2 | DAL vs NYG | 9/11 | 112 | 0 | 92% | 33 |
| 7 | DAL vs WAS | 5/8 | 110 | 1 | 78% | 74 |
| 8 | DAL vs DEN | 7/10 | 74 | 0 | 72% | 29 |
| 9 | DAL vs ARI | 7/12 | 85 | 0 | 88% | 33 |
| 11 | DAL vs LV | 5/7 | 66 | 1 | 73% | 23 |
| 12 | DAL vs PHI | 4/11 | 75 | 0 | 85% | 48 |
| 13 | DAL vs KC | 7/9 | 112 | 1 | 81% | 51 |
| 14 | DAL vs DET | 6/8 | 121 | 0 | 46% | 37 |
| 15 | DAL vs MIN | 6/10 | 111 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | DAL vs LAC | 6/7 | 51 | 0 | 86% | 18 |
| 17 | DAL vs WAS | 5/10 | 46 | 0 | 87% | 24 |
| 18 | DAL vs NYG | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 45% | 4 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 156 | 1,359 | 79.9 | 9 | 20.9 |
| 2023 | 17 | 181 | 1,749 | 102.9 | 14 | 27.7 |
| 2024 | 15 | 152 | 1,194 | 79.6 | 6 | 20.9 |
| 2025 | 13 | 117 | 1,077 | 82.8 | 3 | 18.1 |
CAREER VS NYG
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 18 | DAL | 1/1 | 4 | 0 |
| 2025 | Wk 2 | DAL | 9/11 | 112 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 13 | DAL | 2/6 | 39 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 4 | DAL | 7/8 | 98 | 1 |
| 2023 | Wk 10 | DAL | 11/14 | 151 | 2 |
| 2023 | Wk 1 | DAL | 4/4 | 77 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 12 | DAL | 6/11 | 106 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 3 | DAL | 8/12 | 87 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
CeeDee Lamb is tagged as WR1 for DAL. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with NYG ranked #22 vs WR and allowing 26.6 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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