Week 1 NFL player projection
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
PROJECTION
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a DAL WR facing NYG in Week 1. He averaged 13 receiving yards across 9 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 34. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE MARQUEZ VALDES-SCANTLING IS TRENDING
The trend on Marquez Valdes-Scantling points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 40.4 in 2022 to 13.3 in 2025 — down 67%.
Availability is part of the story: 9 games on record in 2025, best of 34 in Week 18, worst of 0.
Measured against this week's 50.4 projection, he cleared it in 0 of 9 games last season.
Split his 9 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 10 receiving yards per game early, then 16 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
50
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.2
Receptions
DAL vs NYG · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
13.3
Receiving Yards / game
0/9
games clearing this projection
29
targets
60%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (9). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (50.4). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 34 receiving yards in Week 18 against BAL; the quietest was 0 in Week 14 against BAL. He finished above his own 13-per-game average in 4 of 9 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 1 of 9 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 19 yards. That single play is worth about 143% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
Across those games he handled 29 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SF vs NO | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 3 | SF vs ARI | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | -- | 9 |
| 5 | SF vs LA | 1/3 | 9 | 0 | -- | 9 |
| 6 | SF vs TB | 2/3 | 22 | 0 | -- | 19 |
| 14 | PIT vs BAL | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 31% | -- |
| 15 | PIT vs MIA | 1/1 | 19 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | PIT vs DET | 1/3 | 6 | 0 | 42% | 6 |
| 17 | PIT vs CLE | 3/9 | 21 | 0 | 82% | 7 |
| 18 | PIT vs BAL | 5/7 | 34 | 0 | 84% | 13 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 81 | 687 | 40.4 | 2 | 8.4 |
| 2023 | 16 | 42 | 315 | 19.7 | 1 | 4.3 |
| 2024 | 13 | 44 | 411 | 31.6 | 4 | 7.2 |
| 2025 | 9 | 29 | 120 | 13.3 | 1 | 4.3 |
CAREER VS NYG
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 14 | NO | 4/7 | 51 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is tagged as WR3 rotation for DAL. The page uses top-3 WR projection volume for DAL, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with NYG ranked #22 vs WR and allowing 26.6 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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