Week 1 NFL player projection
Deshaun Watson
PROJECTION
Deshaun Watson is a CLE QB facing JAX in Week 1. His most complete season on record is 2024: 7 games for 1,148 passing yards. Below: the WinForge median projection, and the limited record behind it.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
183
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
0
Passing TDs
CLE vs JAX · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
The record on Deshaun Watson is short: 7 games in 2024 for 1,148 passing yards. That is too small a sample to call a trend, so the projection leans on role and matchup rather than his own history.
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6 | 0 | 1,102 | 183.7 | 8 | 16.6 |
| 2023 | 6 | 0 | 1,115 | 185.8 | 8 | 16.2 |
| 2024 | 7 | 0 | 1,148 | 164 | 6 | 12.5 |
CAREER VS JAX
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 2 | CLE | 0/0 | 186 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Deshaun Watson is tagged as starter for CLE. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with JAX ranked #19 vs QB and allowing 17.1 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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