Week 1 NFL player projection
Harold Fannin Jr.
PROJECTION
Harold Fannin Jr. is a CLE TE facing JAX in Week 1. He averaged 46 receiving yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 13 to 114. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
24
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.1
Receptions
CLE vs JAX · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
The record on Harold Fannin Jr. is short: 16 games in 2025 for 731 receiving yards. That is too small a sample to call a trend, so the projection leans on role and matchup rather than his own history.
Measured against this week's 24.3 projection, he cleared it in 14 of 16 games last season.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
45.7
Receiving Yards / game
14/16
games clearing this projection
107
targets
--
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (41.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (24.3). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 114 receiving yards in Week 14 against TEN; the quietest was 13 in Week 5 against MIN. He finished above his own 46-per-game average in 6 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 6 of 16 games, and more than one in 1 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 35 yards. That single play is worth about 77% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
Across those games he handled 107 targets and 7 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE vs CIN | 7/9 | 63 | 0 | -- | 22 |
| 2 | CLE vs BAL | 5/5 | 48 | 0 | -- | 20 |
| 3 | CLE vs GB | 3/4 | 25 | 0 | -- | 13 |
| 4 | CLE vs DET | 2/6 | 24 | 0 | -- | 13 |
| 5 | CLE vs MIN | 4/4 | 13 | 1 | -- | 5 |
| 6 | CLE vs PIT | 7/10 | 81 | 0 | -- | 24 |
| 7 | CLE vs MIA | 4/5 | 36 | 0 | -- | 19 |
| 8 | CLE vs NE | 6/8 | 62 | 1 | -- | 19 |
| 10 | CLE vs NYJ | 4/7 | 44 | 0 | -- | 24 |
| 11 | CLE vs BAL | 2/5 | 26 | 0 | -- | 25 |
| 12 | CLE vs LV | 4/6 | 40 | 0 | -- | 17 |
| 13 | CLE vs SF | 3/5 | 43 | 1 | -- | 34 |
| 14 | CLE vs TEN | 8/11 | 114 | 1 | -- | 35 |
| 15 | CLE vs CHI | 7/14 | 48 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | CLE vs BUF | 4/6 | 34 | 2 | -- | 13 |
| 17 | CLE vs PIT | 2/2 | 30 | 1 | -- | 28 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16 | 107 | 731 | 45.7 | 7 | 13.7 |
CAREER VS JAX
No career game against JAX on record in the 2022-2025 seasons WinForge stores. There is no head-to-head sample to lean on here, which is itself worth knowing.
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Harold Fannin Jr. is tagged as TE1 for CLE. The page uses team-leading TE projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with JAX ranked #25 vs TE and allowing 12.3 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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