Week 1 NFL player projection
Trey McBride
PROJECTION
Trey McBride is a ARI TE facing LAC in Week 1. He averaged 73 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 27 to 134. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
33
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.1
Receptions
ARI vs LAC · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Trey McBride is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 29.4 in 2022 to 72.9 in 2025 — up 148% — on 39 then 169 targets.
Measured against this week's 32.8 projection, he cleared it in 16 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 59.5 receiving yards per game early, then 84.8 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
72.9
Receiving Yards / game
16/17
games clearing this projection
169
targets
91%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (72). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (32.8). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 134 receiving yards in Week 15 against HOU; the quietest was 27 in Week 16 against ATL. He finished above his own 73-per-game average in 8 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 9 of 17 games, and more than one in 2 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 31 yards. That single play is worth about 43% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 92% across his first 5 recorded games and 95% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 169 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI vs NO | 6/9 | 61 | 0 | 97% | 25 |
| 2 | ARI vs CAR | 6/7 | 78 | 0 | 91% | 31 |
| 3 | ARI vs SF | 5/8 | 43 | 1 | 88% | 17 |
| 4 | ARI vs SEA | 7/11 | 52 | 0 | 96% | 17 |
| 5 | ARI vs TEN | 5/7 | 41 | 0 | 90% | 12 |
| 6 | ARI vs IND | 8/11 | 72 | 1 | 90% | 26 |
| 7 | ARI vs GB | 10/13 | 74 | 2 | 87% | 15 |
| 9 | ARI vs DAL | 5/9 | 55 | 1 | 88% | 19 |
| 10 | ARI vs SEA | 9/13 | 127 | 1 | 84% | 24 |
| 11 | ARI vs SF | 10/11 | 115 | 1 | 89% | 28 |
| 12 | ARI vs JAX | 9/10 | 79 | 0 | 88% | 14 |
| 13 | ARI vs TB | 8/9 | 82 | 1 | 89% | 20 |
| 14 | ARI vs LA | 5/9 | 58 | 0 | 97% | 27 |
| 15 | ARI vs HOU | 12/13 | 134 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 16 | ARI vs ATL | 4/8 | 27 | 0 | 96% | 10 |
| 17 | ARI vs CIN | 10/13 | 76 | 1 | 96% | 18 |
| 18 | ARI vs LA | 7/8 | 65 | 0 | 95% | 29 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 9 | 39 | 265 | 29.4 | 1 | 8.4 |
| 2023 | 17 | 106 | 825 | 48.5 | 3 | 13.1 |
| 2024 | 16 | 147 | 1,146 | 71.6 | 3 | 18.7 |
| 2025 | 17 | 169 | 1,239 | 72.9 | 11 | 21.9 |
CAREER VS LAC
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 7 | ARI | 5/7 | 51 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 12 | ARI | 1/3 | 1 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Trey McBride is tagged as TE1 for ARI. The page uses team-leading TE projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with LAC ranked #5 vs TE and allowing 8.4 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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