Week 1 NFL player projection
Jacoby Brissett
PROJECTION
Jacoby Brissett is a ARI QB facing LAC in Week 1. He averaged 240 passing yards across 14 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 452. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
244
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
ARI vs LAC · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Jacoby Brissett is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 186.3 in 2022 to 240.4 in 2025 — up 29% — across 14 then 14 games.
Measured against this week's 243.5 projection, he cleared it in 9 of 14 games last season.
Split his 14 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 224.3 passing yards per game early, then 256.6 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
240.4
Passing Yards / game
9/14
games clearing this projection
24
touchdowns
85%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (259.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (243.5). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 452 passing yards in Week 11 against SF; the quietest was 0 in Week 5 against TEN. He finished above his own 240-per-game average in 10 of 14 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 12 of 14 games, and more than one in 10 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 50 yards. That single play is worth about 21% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 52% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 100% across his last 4 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
He also carried the ball 38 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ARI vs CAR | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 2% | 2 |
| 5 | ARI vs TEN | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -- |
| 6 | ARI vs IND | 0/0 | 320 | 2 | 100% | 30 |
| 7 | ARI vs GB | 0/0 | 279 | 2 | 100% | 43 |
| 9 | ARI vs DAL | 0/0 | 261 | 3 | 100% | 50 |
| 10 | ARI vs SEA | 0/0 | 258 | 2 | 96% | 34 |
| 11 | ARI vs SF | 0/0 | 452 | 2 | 100% | 34 |
| 12 | ARI vs JAX | 0/0 | 317 | 1 | 98% | 39 |
| 13 | ARI vs TB | 0/0 | 301 | 2 | 100% | 21 |
| 14 | ARI vs LA | 0/0 | 271 | 2 | 100% | 27 |
| 15 | ARI vs HOU | 0/0 | 249 | 3 | -- | -- |
| 16 | ARI vs ATL | 0/0 | 203 | 1 | 100% | 32 |
| 17 | ARI vs CIN | 0/0 | 212 | 2 | 100% | 38 |
| 18 | ARI vs LA | 0/0 | 243 | 2 | 100% | 43 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 14 | 0 | 2,608 | 186.3 | 14 | 14.1 |
| 2023 | 2 | 0 | 224 | 112 | 3 | 14.5 |
| 2024 | 7 | 0 | 826 | 118 | 2 | 6.9 |
| 2025 | 14 | 0 | 3,366 | 240.4 | 24 | 19.7 |
CAREER VS LAC
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 17 | NE | 0/0 | -2 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 5 | CLE | 0/0 | 230 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Jacoby Brissett is tagged as starter for ARI. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with LAC ranked #2 vs QB and allowing 12.6 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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