Week 1 NFL player projection
Kendrick Bourne
PROJECTION
Kendrick Bourne is a ARI WR facing LAC in Week 1. He averaged 39 receiving yards across 14 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 142. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
53
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.9
Receptions
ARI vs LAC · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Kendrick Bourne is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 27.1 in 2022 to 39.4 in 2025 — up 45% — on 48 then 53 targets.
Measured against this week's 53.4 projection, he cleared it in 2 of 14 games last season.
Split his 14 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 61.3 receiving yards per game early, then 17.4 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
39.4
Receiving Yards / game
2/14
games clearing this projection
53
targets
64%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (26). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (53.4). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 142 receiving yards in Week 5 against LA; the quietest was 0 in Week 18 against SEA. He finished above his own 39-per-game average in 3 of 14 games.
He did not account for a touchdown in any of his 14 recorded 2025 games, so none of the projection above leans on touchdown equity.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 56 yards. That single play is worth about 142% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 67% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 46% across his last 4 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 53 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | SF vs NO | 3/3 | 32 | 0 | 49% | 13 |
| 3 | SF vs ARI | 4/6 | 38 | 0 | 72% | 11 |
| 4 | SF vs JAX | 1/4 | 17 | 0 | 67% | 17 |
| 5 | SF vs LA | 10/11 | 142 | 0 | 81% | 35 |
| 6 | SF vs TB | 5/9 | 142 | 0 | 80% | 56 |
| 7 | SF vs ATL | 2/2 | 14 | 0 | 78% | 10 |
| 8 | SF vs HOU | 3/4 | 44 | 0 | 79% | 18 |
| 9 | SF vs NYG | 2/2 | 34 | 0 | 73% | 21 |
| 10 | SF vs LA | 1/1 | 19 | 0 | 68% | 19 |
| 13 | SF vs CLE | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 34% | -- |
| 15 | SF vs TEN | 2/3 | 17 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | SF vs IND | 3/5 | 27 | 0 | 70% | 14 |
| 17 | SF vs CHI | 1/1 | 25 | 0 | 26% | 25 |
| 18 | SF vs SEA | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 52% | -- |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | 48 | 434 | 27.1 | 1 | 6.6 |
| 2023 | 8 | 55 | 406 | 50.8 | 4 | 14.9 |
| 2024 | 12 | 38 | 305 | 25.4 | 1 | 6.6 |
| 2025 | 14 | 53 | 551 | 39.4 | 0 | 7.8 |
CAREER VS LAC
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 17 | NE | 2/4 | 22 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Kendrick Bourne is tagged as WR3 rotation for ARI. The page uses top-3 WR projection volume for ARI, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with LAC ranked #9 vs WR and allowing 21.5 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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