Week 1 NFL player projection
Michael Wilson
PROJECTION
Michael Wilson is a ARI WR facing LAC in Week 1. He averaged 59 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 5 to 185. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
72
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5.7
Receptions
ARI vs LAC · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Michael Wilson is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 43.5 in 2023 to 59.2 in 2025 — up 36% — on 58 then 126 targets.
Measured against this week's 72 projection, he cleared it in 5 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 24.6 receiving yards per game early, then 89.9 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
59.2
Receiving Yards / game
5/17
games clearing this projection
126
targets
81%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (44). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (72). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 185 receiving yards in Week 11 against SF; the quietest was 5 in Week 3 against SF. He finished above his own 59-per-game average in 6 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 6 of 17 games, and more than one in 1 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 50 yards. That single play is worth about 84% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 75% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 87% across his last 5 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 126 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI vs NO | 1/4 | 5 | 0 | 67% | 5 |
| 2 | ARI vs CAR | 1/2 | 11 | 1 | 69% | 11 |
| 3 | ARI vs SF | 1/2 | 5 | 0 | 74% | 5 |
| 4 | ARI vs SEA | 3/6 | 15 | 0 | 97% | 6 |
| 5 | ARI vs TEN | 2/4 | 16 | 0 | 69% | 10 |
| 6 | ARI vs IND | 4/5 | 44 | 0 | 75% | 30 |
| 7 | ARI vs GB | 3/4 | 40 | 0 | 82% | 18 |
| 9 | ARI vs DAL | 3/4 | 61 | 0 | 72% | 50 |
| 10 | ARI vs SEA | 4/7 | 34 | 0 | 92% | 15 |
| 11 | ARI vs SF | 15/18 | 185 | 0 | 82% | 34 |
| 12 | ARI vs JAX | 10/15 | 118 | 0 | 82% | 31 |
| 13 | ARI vs TB | 3/7 | 36 | 0 | 93% | 16 |
| 14 | ARI vs LA | 11/16 | 142 | 2 | 79% | 25 |
| 15 | ARI vs HOU | 5/11 | 54 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | ARI vs ATL | 2/3 | 52 | 1 | 86% | 32 |
| 17 | ARI vs CIN | 5/10 | 89 | 1 | 86% | 38 |
| 18 | ARI vs LA | 5/8 | 99 | 1 | 93% | 43 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 13 | 58 | 565 | 43.5 | 3 | 10.1 |
| 2024 | 16 | 71 | 548 | 34.2 | 4 | 9.3 |
| 2025 | 17 | 126 | 1,006 | 59.2 | 7 | 15.1 |
CAREER VS LAC
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 7 | ARI | 1/3 | 15 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Michael Wilson is tagged as WR1 for ARI. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with LAC ranked #9 vs WR and allowing 21.5 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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