Week 1 NFL player projection
Jerry Jeudy
PROJECTION
Jerry Jeudy is a CLE WR facing JAX in Week 1. He averaged 35 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 78. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE JERRY JEUDY IS TRENDING
The trend on Jerry Jeudy points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 64.8 in 2022 to 35.4 in 2025 — down 45%.
Availability is part of the story: 17 games on record in 2025, best of 78 in Week 10, worst of 0.
Measured against this week's 50.3 projection, he cleared it in 5 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 32.1 receiving yards per game early, then 38.3 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
50
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5
Receptions
CLE vs JAX · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
35.4
Receiving Yards / game
5/17
games clearing this projection
106
targets
84%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (26). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (50.3). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 78 receiving yards in Week 10 against NYJ; the quietest was 0 in Week 8 against NE. He finished above his own 35-per-game average in 8 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 2 of 17 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 60 yards. That single play is worth about 169% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 86% across his first 5 recorded games and 85% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 106 targets and 1 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE vs CIN | 5/8 | 66 | 0 | 88% | 25 |
| 2 | CLE vs BAL | 4/8 | 51 | 0 | 88% | 26 |
| 3 | CLE vs GB | 1/5 | 17 | 0 | 83% | 17 |
| 4 | CLE vs DET | 3/9 | 48 | 0 | 82% | 33 |
| 5 | CLE vs MIN | 2/5 | 15 | 0 | 90% | 9 |
| 6 | CLE vs PIT | 5/13 | 43 | 0 | 89% | 12 |
| 7 | CLE vs MIA | 2/4 | 17 | 0 | 68% | 16 |
| 8 | CLE vs NE | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 83% | -- |
| 10 | CLE vs NYJ | 6/12 | 78 | 1 | 96% | 22 |
| 11 | CLE vs BAL | 3/7 | 21 | 0 | 82% | 10 |
| 12 | CLE vs LV | 1/3 | 39 | 0 | 65% | 39 |
| 13 | CLE vs SF | 3/4 | 26 | 0 | 84% | 11 |
| 14 | CLE vs TEN | 3/5 | 76 | 1 | 88% | 60 |
| 15 | CLE vs CHI | 2/4 | 22 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | CLE vs BUF | 3/4 | 12 | 0 | 73% | 7 |
| 17 | CLE vs PIT | 5/7 | 54 | 0 | 94% | 15 |
| 18 | CLE vs CIN | 2/6 | 17 | 0 | 88% | 11 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 15 | 100 | 972 | 64.8 | 6 | 15.8 |
| 2023 | 16 | 87 | 758 | 47.4 | 2 | 10.6 |
| 2024 | 17 | 145 | 1,229 | 72.3 | 4 | 16.6 |
| 2025 | 17 | 106 | 602 | 35.4 | 2 | 8.6 |
CAREER VS JAX
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 2 | CLE | 5/6 | 73 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 8 | DEN | 6/7 | 63 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Jerry Jeudy is tagged as WR1 for CLE. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with JAX ranked #20 vs WR and allowing 26.2 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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