Week 1 NFL player projection
Brock Bowers
PROJECTION
Brock Bowers is a LV TE facing MIA in Week 1. He averaged 57 receiving yards across 12 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 28 to 127. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
33
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4
Receptions
LV vs MIA · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Brock Bowers has been consistent rather than trending. 56.7 receiving yards per game in 2025, compared with 70.2 in 2024 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 33.1 projection, he cleared it in 9 of 12 games last season.
Split his 12 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 63.8 receiving yards per game early, then 49.5 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
56.7
Receiving Yards / game
9/12
games clearing this projection
86
targets
86%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (46). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (33.1). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 127 receiving yards in Week 9 against JAX; the quietest was 28 in Week 15 against PHI. He finished above his own 57-per-game average in 4 of 12 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 4 of 12 games, and more than one in 2 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 38 yards. That single play is worth about 67% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 70% of snaps across his first 3 recorded games, then 99% across his last 3 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 86 targets and 2 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV vs NE | 5/8 | 103 | 0 | 51% | 38 |
| 2 | LV vs LAC | 5/8 | 38 | 0 | 77% | 9 |
| 3 | LV vs WAS | 4/5 | 38 | 0 | 83% | 18 |
| 4 | LV vs CHI | 5/6 | 46 | 0 | 77% | 19 |
| 9 | LV vs JAX | 12/13 | 127 | 3 | 81% | 27 |
| 10 | LV vs DEN | 1/3 | 31 | 0 | 83% | 31 |
| 11 | LV vs DAL | 7/12 | 72 | 0 | 97% | 18 |
| 12 | LV vs CLE | 6/9 | 55 | 0 | 96% | 15 |
| 13 | LV vs LAC | 4/4 | 63 | 2 | 98% | 27 |
| 14 | LV vs DEN | 4/5 | 46 | 1 | 100% | 15 |
| 15 | LV vs PHI | 6/8 | 28 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | LV vs HOU | 5/5 | 33 | 1 | 98% | 13 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | 153 | 1,194 | 70.2 | 5 | 18.7 |
| 2025 | 12 | 86 | 680 | 56.7 | 7 | 16.9 |
CAREER VS MIA
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 11 | LV | 13/16 | 126 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Brock Bowers is tagged as TE1 for LV. The page uses team-leading TE projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with MIA ranked #30 vs TE and allowing 14.5 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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