Week 1 NFL player projection
Kirk Cousins
PROJECTION
Kirk Cousins is a LV QB facing MIA in Week 1. He averaged 172 passing yards across 10 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 29 to 373. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE KIRK COUSINS IS TRENDING
The trend on Kirk Cousins points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 267.5 in 2022 to 172.1 in 2025 — down 36%.
Availability is part of the story: 10 games on record in 2025, best of 373 in Week 15, worst of 29.
Measured against this week's 219.2 projection, he cleared it in 2 of 10 games last season.
Split his 10 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 136.6 passing yards per game early, then 207.6 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
219
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
LV vs MIA · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
172.1
Passing Yards / game
2/10
games clearing this projection
11
touchdowns
85%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (176.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (219.2). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 373 passing yards in Week 15 against TB; the quietest was 29 in Week 3 against CAR. He finished above his own 172-per-game average in 6 of 10 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 6 of 10 games, and more than one in 3 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 49 yards. That single play is worth about 28% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 54% of snaps across his first 3 recorded games, then 100% across his last 3 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
He also carried the ball 14 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | ATL vs CAR | 0/0 | 29 | 0 | 23% | 11 |
| 8 | ATL vs MIA | 0/0 | 173 | 0 | 100% | 25 |
| 11 | ATL vs CAR | 0/0 | 48 | 0 | 38% | 11 |
| 12 | ATL vs NO | 0/0 | 199 | 2 | 100% | 49 |
| 13 | ATL vs NYJ | 0/0 | 234 | 1 | 100% | 42 |
| 14 | ATL vs SEA | 0/0 | 162 | 0 | 100% | 30 |
| 15 | ATL vs TB | 0/0 | 373 | 3 | -- | -- |
| 16 | ATL vs ARI | 0/0 | 197 | 3 | 100% | 41 |
| 17 | ATL vs LA | 0/0 | 126 | 1 | 100% | 22 |
| 18 | ATL vs NO | 0/0 | 180 | 1 | 100% | 37 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 0 | 4,547 | 267.5 | 31 | 20.4 |
| 2023 | 8 | 0 | 2,331 | 291.4 | 18 | 23.7 |
| 2024 | 14 | 0 | 3,508 | 250.6 | 18 | 15.3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 0 | 1,721 | 172.1 | 11 | 12.5 |
CAREER VS MIA
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 8 | ATL | 0/0 | 173 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 6 | MIN | 0/0 | 175 | 2 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Kirk Cousins is tagged as starter for LV. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with MIA ranked #25 vs QB and allowing 19.9 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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