Week 1 NFL player projection
Tre Tucker
PROJECTION
Tre Tucker is a LV WR facing MIA in Week 1. He averaged 41 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 145. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
54
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.3
Receptions
LV vs MIA · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Tre Tucker is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 25.5 in 2023 to 40.9 in 2025 — up 60% — on 34 then 92 targets.
Measured against this week's 53.9 projection, he cleared it in 4 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 53.4 receiving yards per game early, then 29.9 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
40.9
Receiving Yards / game
4/17
games clearing this projection
92
targets
95%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (33). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (53.9). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 145 receiving yards in Week 3 against WAS; the quietest was 0 in Week 15 against PHI. He finished above his own 41-per-game average in 7 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 3 of 17 games, and more than one in 1 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 61 yards. That single play is worth about 149% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 92% across his first 5 recorded games and 98% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 92 targets and 11 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV vs NE | 2/3 | 54 | 1 | 90% | 28 |
| 2 | LV vs LAC | 3/8 | 12 | 0 | 91% | 7 |
| 3 | LV vs WAS | 8/9 | 145 | 3 | 94% | 61 |
| 4 | LV vs CHI | 2/2 | 13 | 0 | 98% | 9 |
| 5 | LV vs IND | 4/6 | 62 | 0 | 88% | 33 |
| 6 | LV vs TEN | 5/5 | 70 | 0 | 92% | 37 |
| 7 | LV vs KC | 5/6 | 33 | 0 | 89% | 14 |
| 9 | LV vs JAX | 3/4 | 38 | 0 | 97% | 22 |
| 10 | LV vs DEN | 2/3 | 28 | 0 | 100% | 25 |
| 11 | LV vs DAL | 4/8 | 47 | 1 | 97% | 26 |
| 12 | LV vs CLE | 3/10 | 28 | 0 | 95% | 19 |
| 13 | LV vs LAC | 3/3 | 20 | 0 | 96% | 9 |
| 14 | LV vs DEN | 2/5 | 24 | 0 | 94% | 13 |
| 15 | LV vs PHI | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | LV vs HOU | 4/5 | 43 | 0 | 100% | 14 |
| 17 | LV vs NYG | 5/6 | 49 | 0 | 100% | 26 |
| 18 | LV vs KC | 2/6 | 30 | 0 | 98% | 16 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 13 | 34 | 331 | 25.5 | 2 | 6.3 |
| 2024 | 17 | 81 | 539 | 31.7 | 4 | 9 |
| 2025 | 17 | 92 | 696 | 40.9 | 5 | 11.2 |
CAREER VS MIA
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 11 | LV | 3/4 | 28 | 0 |
| 2023 | Wk 11 | LV | 2/7 | 36 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Tre Tucker is tagged as WR2 rotation for LV. The page uses top-2 WR projection volume for LV, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with MIA ranked #6 vs WR and allowing 21.3 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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