Week 1 NFL player projection
Ashton Jeanty
PROJECTION
Ashton Jeanty is a LV RB facing MIA in Week 1. He averaged 57 rushing yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 7 to 138. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
55
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
2.7
Receptions
LV vs MIA · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
The record on Ashton Jeanty is short: 17 games in 2025 for 975 rushing yards. That is too small a sample to call a trend, so the projection leans on role and matchup rather than his own history.
Measured against this week's 55.1 projection, he cleared it in 8 of 17 games last season.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
57.4
Rushing Yards / game
8/17
games clearing this projection
73
targets
78%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (50). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (55.1). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 138 rushing yards in Week 4 against CHI; the quietest was 7 in Week 11 against DAL. He finished above his own 57-per-game average in 8 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 7 of 17 games, and more than one in 2 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 64 yards. That single play is worth about 112% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 68% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 87% across his last 5 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 73 targets and 266 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV vs NE | 2/2 | 38 | 1 | 86% | 9 |
| 2 | LV vs LAC | 3/4 | 43 | 0 | 56% | 13 |
| 3 | LV vs WAS | 0/0 | 63 | 0 | 61% | 18 |
| 4 | LV vs CHI | 2/2 | 138 | 3 | 85% | 64 |
| 5 | LV vs IND | 5/7 | 67 | 0 | 54% | 29 |
| 6 | LV vs TEN | 2/4 | 75 | 1 | 79% | 13 |
| 7 | LV vs KC | 1/1 | 21 | 0 | 63% | 13 |
| 9 | LV vs JAX | 5/5 | 42 | 1 | 91% | 15 |
| 10 | LV vs DEN | 3/5 | 60 | 1 | 87% | 10 |
| 11 | LV vs DAL | 6/8 | 7 | 0 | 73% | 11 |
| 12 | LV vs CLE | 8/8 | 50 | 1 | 81% | 25 |
| 13 | LV vs LAC | 6/8 | 31 | 0 | 96% | 9 |
| 14 | LV vs DEN | 2/4 | 30 | 0 | 70% | 6 |
| 15 | LV vs PHI | 4/6 | 35 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | LV vs HOU | 1/2 | 128 | 2 | 93% | 60 |
| 17 | LV vs NYG | 2/2 | 60 | 0 | 81% | 24 |
| 18 | LV vs KC | 3/5 | 87 | 0 | 97% | 12 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | 73 | 975 | 57.4 | 10 | 16 |
CAREER VS MIA
No career game against MIA on record in the 2022-2025 seasons WinForge stores. There is no head-to-head sample to lean on here, which is itself worth knowing.
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Ashton Jeanty is tagged as RB1 for LV. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with MIA ranked #24 vs RB and allowing 21.9 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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