Week 1 NFL player projection
Joe Burrow
PROJECTION
Joe Burrow is a CIN QB facing TB in Week 1. He averaged 226 passing yards across 8 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 76 to 309. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
211
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
CIN vs TB · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Joe Burrow has been consistent rather than trending. 226.1 passing yards per game in 2025, compared with 279.7 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 211.4 projection, he cleared it in 6 of 8 games last season.
Split his 8 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 183.5 passing yards per game early, then 268.8 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
226.1
Passing Yards / game
6/8
games clearing this projection
17
touchdowns
86%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (248.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (211.4). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 309 passing yards in Week 16 against MIA; the quietest was 76 in Week 2 against JAX. He finished above his own 226-per-game average in 5 of 8 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 7 of 8 games, and more than one in 5 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 43 yards. That single play is worth about 19% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 65% of snaps across his first 2 recorded games, then 91% across his last 2 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
He also carried the ball 14 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN vs CLE | 0/0 | 113 | 1 | 100% | 20 |
| 2 | CIN vs JAX | 0/0 | 76 | 1 | 30% | 25 |
| 13 | CIN vs BAL | 0/0 | 261 | 2 | 100% | 43 |
| 14 | CIN vs BUF | 0/0 | 284 | 4 | 100% | 37 |
| 15 | CIN vs BAL | 0/0 | 225 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | CIN vs MIA | 0/0 | 309 | 4 | 90% | 36 |
| 17 | CIN vs ARI | 0/0 | 305 | 2 | 83% | 39 |
| 18 | CIN vs CLE | 0/0 | 236 | 3 | 99% | 21 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | 0 | 4,475 | 279.7 | 40 | 26.1 |
| 2023 | 10 | 0 | 2,309 | 230.9 | 15 | 17.8 |
| 2024 | 17 | 0 | 4,918 | 289.3 | 45 | 27.3 |
| 2025 | 8 | 0 | 1,809 | 226.1 | 17 | 21.1 |
CAREER VS TB
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Wk 15 | CIN | 0/0 | 200 | 4 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Joe Burrow is tagged as starter for CIN. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with TB ranked #31 vs QB and allowing 19.9 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator