Week 1 NFL player projection
Chase Brown
PROJECTION
Chase Brown is a CIN RB facing TB in Week 1. He averaged 60 rushing yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 3 to 108. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
48
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
2.6
Receptions
CIN vs TB · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Chase Brown is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 17.9 in 2023 to 59.9 in 2025 — up 235% — on 15 then 88 targets.
Measured against this week's 48.1 projection, he cleared it in 9 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 47.9 rushing yards per game early, then 70.7 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
59.9
Rushing Yards / game
9/17
games clearing this projection
88
targets
67%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (53). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (48.1). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 108 rushing yards in Week 7 against PIT; the quietest was 3 in Week 3 against MIN. He finished above his own 60-per-game average in 8 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 6 of 17 games, and more than one in 4 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 37 yards. That single play is worth about 62% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 65% across his first 5 recorded games and 61% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 88 targets and 232 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN vs CLE | 2/3 | 43 | 1 | 75% | 8 |
| 2 | CIN vs JAX | 2/3 | 47 | 0 | 71% | 13 |
| 3 | CIN vs MIN | 4/5 | 3 | 0 | 55% | 9 |
| 4 | CIN vs DEN | 3/3 | 40 | 0 | 73% | 12 |
| 5 | CIN vs DET | 7/8 | 27 | 0 | 53% | 9 |
| 6 | CIN vs GB | 2/2 | 42 | 0 | 54% | 13 |
| 7 | CIN vs PIT | 2/4 | 108 | 0 | 63% | 37 |
| 8 | CIN vs NYJ | 3/3 | 73 | 2 | 54% | 22 |
| 9 | CIN vs CHI | 8/14 | 37 | 0 | 96% | 21 |
| 11 | CIN vs PIT | 6/8 | 99 | 0 | 82% | 35 |
| 12 | CIN vs NE | 2/4 | 107 | 0 | 89% | 21 |
| 13 | CIN vs BAL | 7/7 | 78 | 0 | 60% | 18 |
| 14 | CIN vs BUF | 3/4 | 23 | 2 | 67% | 10 |
| 15 | CIN vs BAL | 7/7 | 53 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | CIN vs MIA | 4/4 | 66 | 3 | 61% | 23 |
| 17 | CIN vs ARI | 3/3 | 101 | 2 | 61% | 25 |
| 18 | CIN vs CLE | 4/6 | 72 | 1 | 56% | 19 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 10 | 15 | 179 | 17.9 | 1 | 6.1 |
| 2024 | 16 | 65 | 990 | 61.9 | 11 | 17.6 |
| 2025 | 17 | 88 | 1,019 | 59.9 | 11 | 18.3 |
CAREER VS TB
No career game against TB on record in the 2022-2025 seasons WinForge stores. There is no head-to-head sample to lean on here, which is itself worth knowing.
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Chase Brown is tagged as RB1 for CIN. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with TB ranked #18 vs RB and allowing 20.1 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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