Week 1 NFL player projection
Ja'Marr Chase
PROJECTION
Ja'Marr Chase is a CIN WR facing TB in Week 1. He averaged 88 receiving yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 23 to 165. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
72
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
6.6
Receptions
CIN vs TB · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Ja'Marr Chase has been consistent rather than trending. 88.2 receiving yards per game in 2025, compared with 87.2 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 71.9 projection, he cleared it in 10 of 16 games last season.
Split his 16 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 90 receiving yards per game early, then 86.5 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
88.2
Receiving Yards / game
10/16
games clearing this projection
185
targets
94%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (95). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (71.9). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 165 receiving yards in Week 2 against JAX; the quietest was 23 in Week 4 against DEN. He finished above his own 88-per-game average in 10 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 6 of 16 games, and more than one in 2 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 64 yards. That single play is worth about 73% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 91% across his first 5 recorded games and 93% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 185 targets and 3 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN vs CLE | 2/5 | 26 | 0 | 87% | 20 |
| 2 | CIN vs JAX | 14/16 | 165 | 1 | 96% | 25 |
| 3 | CIN vs MIN | 5/6 | 50 | 0 | 86% | 28 |
| 4 | CIN vs DEN | 5/8 | 23 | 0 | 96% | 10 |
| 5 | CIN vs DET | 6/10 | 110 | 2 | 92% | 64 |
| 6 | CIN vs GB | 10/12 | 94 | 1 | 100% | 19 |
| 7 | CIN vs PIT | 16/23 | 161 | 1 | 99% | 18 |
| 8 | CIN vs NYJ | 12/19 | 91 | 0 | 98% | 17 |
| 9 | CIN vs CHI | 6/8 | 111 | 0 | 99% | 36 |
| 11 | CIN vs PIT | 3/10 | 30 | 0 | 97% | 16 |
| 13 | CIN vs BAL | 7/14 | 110 | 0 | 99% | 43 |
| 14 | CIN vs BUF | 5/8 | 44 | 0 | 100% | 16 |
| 15 | CIN vs BAL | 10/16 | 132 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | CIN vs MIA | 9/11 | 109 | 0 | 87% | 36 |
| 17 | CIN vs ARI | 7/9 | 60 | 2 | 77% | 22 |
| 18 | CIN vs CLE | 8/10 | 96 | 1 | 100% | 21 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12 | 134 | 1,046 | 87.2 | 9 | 24 |
| 2023 | 16 | 145 | 1,216 | 76 | 7 | 19.5 |
| 2024 | 17 | 175 | 1,708 | 100.5 | 17 | 27.4 |
| 2025 | 16 | 185 | 1,412 | 88.2 | 8 | 23.3 |
CAREER VS TB
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Wk 15 | CIN | 7/13 | 60 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Ja'Marr Chase is tagged as WR1 for CIN. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with TB ranked #19 vs WR and allowing 25.6 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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