Week 1 NFL player projection
Justin Herbert
PROJECTION
Justin Herbert is a LAC QB facing ARI in Week 1. He averaged 233 passing yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 81 to 420. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
211
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
LAC vs ARI · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Justin Herbert has been consistent rather than trending. 232.9 passing yards per game in 2025, compared with 278.8 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 211 projection, he cleared it in 10 of 16 games last season.
Split his 16 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 267.5 passing yards per game early, then 198.4 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
232.9
Passing Yards / game
10/16
games clearing this projection
28
touchdowns
97%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (231.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (211). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 420 passing yards in Week 7 against IND; the quietest was 81 in Week 11 against JAX. He finished above his own 233-per-game average in 8 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 15 of 16 games, and more than one in 8 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 60 yards. That single play is worth about 26% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 98% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 92% across his last 5 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
He also carried the ball 83 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC vs KC | 0/0 | 318 | 3 | 100% | 33 |
| 2 | LAC vs LV | 0/0 | 242 | 2 | 100% | 60 |
| 3 | LAC vs DEN | 0/0 | 300 | 1 | 100% | 37 |
| 4 | LAC vs NYG | 0/0 | 203 | 1 | 100% | 36 |
| 5 | LAC vs WAS | 0/0 | 166 | 1 | 91% | 41 |
| 6 | LAC vs MIA | 0/0 | 264 | 2 | 100% | 42 |
| 7 | LAC vs IND | 0/0 | 420 | 3 | 100% | 53 |
| 8 | LAC vs MIN | 0/0 | 227 | 3 | 100% | 40 |
| 9 | LAC vs TEN | 0/0 | 250 | 3 | 100% | 34 |
| 10 | LAC vs PIT | 0/0 | 220 | 1 | 100% | 58 |
| 11 | LAC vs JAX | 0/0 | 81 | 0 | 73% | 30 |
| 13 | LAC vs LV | 0/0 | 151 | 2 | 85% | 27 |
| 14 | LAC vs PHI | 0/0 | 139 | 1 | 100% | 60 |
| 15 | LAC vs KC | 0/0 | 210 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | LAC vs DAL | 0/0 | 300 | 3 | 100% | 50 |
| 17 | LAC vs HOU | 0/0 | 236 | 1 | 100% | 60 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 2 | 4,739 | 278.8 | 25 | 19.6 |
| 2023 | 13 | 1 | 3,134 | 241.1 | 23 | 21.1 |
| 2024 | 17 | 0 | 3,870 | 227.6 | 25 | 19.3 |
| 2025 | 16 | 0 | 3,727 | 232.9 | 28 | 21.2 |
CAREER VS ARI
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 7 | LAC | 0/0 | 349 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 12 | LAC | 0/0 | 274 | 3 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Justin Herbert is tagged as starter for LAC. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with ARI ranked #12 vs QB and allowing 11.5 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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