Week 1 NFL player projection
Tre' Harris
PROJECTION
Tre' Harris is a LAC WR facing ARI in Week 1. He averaged 20 receiving yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 54. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
50
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4
Receptions
LAC vs ARI · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
The record on Tre' Harris is short: 16 games in 2025 for 324 receiving yards. That is too small a sample to call a trend, so the projection leans on role and matchup rather than his own history.
Measured against this week's 49.6 projection, he cleared it in 1 of 16 games last season.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
20.2
Receiving Yards / game
1/16
games clearing this projection
43
targets
47%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (18). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (49.6). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 54 receiving yards in Week 16 against DAL; the quietest was 0 in Week 4 against NYG. He finished above his own 20-per-game average in 7 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 1 of 16 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 24 yards. That single play is worth about 119% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 34% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 58% across his last 5 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 43 targets and 2 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC vs KC | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 8% | 11 |
| 2 | LAC vs LV | 2/3 | 34 | 0 | 31% | 24 |
| 3 | LAC vs DEN | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 29% | -- |
| 4 | LAC vs NYG | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 19% | -- |
| 6 | LAC vs MIA | 4/5 | 27 | 0 | 83% | 8 |
| 7 | LAC vs IND | 2/2 | 23 | 0 | 43% | 14 |
| 8 | LAC vs MIN | 2/2 | 8 | 1 | 59% | 6 |
| 9 | LAC vs TEN | 2/2 | 18 | 0 | 46% | 15 |
| 10 | LAC vs PIT | 2/2 | 4 | 0 | 44% | 5 |
| 11 | LAC vs JAX | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 52% | 12 |
| 13 | LAC vs LV | 3/4 | 30 | 0 | 51% | 16 |
| 14 | LAC vs PHI | 1/2 | 18 | 0 | 50% | 18 |
| 15 | LAC vs KC | 3/5 | 49 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | LAC vs DAL | 4/5 | 54 | 0 | 45% | 23 |
| 17 | LAC vs HOU | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 46% | 8 |
| 18 | LAC vs DEN | 2/6 | 28 | 0 | 97% | 16 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16 | 43 | 324 | 20.2 | 1 | 5.2 |
CAREER VS ARI
No career game against ARI on record in the 2022-2025 seasons WinForge stores. There is no head-to-head sample to lean on here, which is itself worth knowing.
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Tre' Harris is tagged as WR3 rotation for LAC. The page uses top-3 WR projection volume for LAC, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with ARI ranked #14 vs WR and allowing 21.1 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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