Week 1 NFL player projection
Quentin Johnston
PROJECTION
Quentin Johnston is a LAC WR facing ARI in Week 1. He averaged 57 receiving yards across 13 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 104. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
56
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.7
Receptions
LAC vs ARI · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Quentin Johnston is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 25.4 in 2023 to 56.5 in 2025 — up 122% — on 67 then 84 targets.
Measured against this week's 56.1 projection, he cleared it in 6 of 13 games last season.
Split his 13 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 67.8 receiving yards per game early, then 46.9 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
56.5
Receiving Yards / game
6/13
games clearing this projection
84
targets
79%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (53). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (56.1). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 104 receiving yards in Week 16 against DAL; the quietest was 0 in Week 11 against JAX. He finished above his own 57-per-game average in 6 of 13 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 7 of 13 games, and more than one in 1 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 60 yards. That single play is worth about 106% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 84% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 69% across his last 4 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 84 targets and 2 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC vs KC | 5/7 | 79 | 2 | 82% | 33 |
| 2 | LAC vs LV | 3/7 | 71 | 1 | 76% | 60 |
| 3 | LAC vs DEN | 6/9 | 89 | 0 | 87% | 37 |
| 4 | LAC vs NYG | 8/13 | 98 | 1 | 92% | 36 |
| 5 | LAC vs WAS | 4/4 | 40 | 0 | 82% | 16 |
| 7 | LAC vs IND | 2/6 | 30 | 1 | 89% | 23 |
| 9 | LAC vs TEN | 4/6 | 53 | 1 | 68% | 23 |
| 10 | LAC vs PIT | 5/10 | 42 | 0 | 82% | 15 |
| 11 | LAC vs JAX | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 90% | -- |
| 13 | LAC vs LV | 3/3 | 23 | 1 | 67% | 10 |
| 14 | LAC vs PHI | 2/3 | 8 | 0 | 76% | 8 |
| 16 | LAC vs DAL | 4/5 | 104 | 1 | 58% | 50 |
| 17 | LAC vs HOU | 5/8 | 98 | 0 | 75% | 60 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | 67 | 431 | 25.4 | 2 | 6.6 |
| 2024 | 15 | 91 | 711 | 47.4 | 8 | 13.5 |
| 2025 | 13 | 84 | 735 | 56.5 | 8 | 15.2 |
CAREER VS ARI
No career game against ARI on record in the 2022-2025 seasons WinForge stores. There is no head-to-head sample to lean on here, which is itself worth knowing.
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Quentin Johnston is tagged as WR2 rotation for LAC. The page uses top-2 WR projection volume for LAC, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with ARI ranked #14 vs WR and allowing 21.1 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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