Week 1 NFL player projection
Lamar Jackson
PROJECTION
Lamar Jackson is a BAL QB facing IND in Week 1. He averaged 196 passing yards across 13 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 101 to 288. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
215
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
BAL vs IND · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Lamar Jackson has been consistent rather than trending. 196.1 passing yards per game in 2025, compared with 186.8 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 215.2 projection, he cleared it in 5 of 13 games last season.
Split his 13 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 208.2 passing yards per game early, then 185.7 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
196.1
Passing Yards / game
5/13
games clearing this projection
23
touchdowns
93%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (204). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (215.2). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 288 passing yards in Week 3 against DET; the quietest was 101 in Week 16 against NE. He finished above his own 196-per-game average in 7 of 13 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 9 of 13 games, and more than one in 7 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 64 yards. That single play is worth about 33% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 91% across his first 4 recorded games and 87% across his last 4. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
He also carried the ball 67 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL vs BUF | 0/0 | 209 | 3 | 100% | 39 |
| 2 | BAL vs CLE | 0/0 | 225 | 4 | 95% | 41 |
| 3 | BAL vs DET | 0/0 | 288 | 3 | 100% | 37 |
| 4 | BAL vs KC | 0/0 | 147 | 1 | 69% | 24 |
| 9 | BAL vs MIA | 0/0 | 204 | 4 | 100% | 39 |
| 10 | BAL vs MIN | 0/0 | 176 | 1 | 100% | 27 |
| 11 | BAL vs CLE | 0/0 | 193 | 0 | 100% | 45 |
| 12 | BAL vs NYJ | 0/0 | 153 | 0 | 100% | 30 |
| 13 | BAL vs CIN | 0/0 | 246 | 0 | 100% | 44 |
| 14 | BAL vs PIT | 0/0 | 219 | 2 | 100% | 35 |
| 15 | BAL vs CIN | 0/0 | 150 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 16 | BAL vs NE | 0/0 | 101 | 0 | 47% | 19 |
| 18 | BAL vs PIT | 0/0 | 238 | 3 | 100% | 64 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12 | 0 | 2,242 | 186.8 | 20 | 22.5 |
| 2023 | 16 | 0 | 3,678 | 229.9 | 29 | 24 |
| 2024 | 17 | 0 | 4,172 | 245.4 | 45 | 30.3 |
| 2025 | 13 | 0 | 2,549 | 196.1 | 23 | 19.8 |
CAREER VS IND
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Wk 3 | BAL | 0/0 | 202 | 2 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Lamar Jackson is tagged as starter for BAL. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with IND ranked #10 vs QB and allowing 15.1 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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