Week 1 NFL player projection
Derrick Henry
PROJECTION
Derrick Henry is a BAL RB facing IND in Week 1. He averaged 94 rushing yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 23 to 216. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
106
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1.3
Receptions
BAL vs IND · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Derrick Henry has been consistent rather than trending. 93.8 rushing yards per game in 2025, compared with 96.1 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 106.3 projection, he cleared it in 6 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 78.6 rushing yards per game early, then 107.3 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
93.8
Rushing Yards / game
6/17
games clearing this projection
21
targets
56%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (94). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (106.3). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 216 rushing yards in Week 17 against GB; the quietest was 23 in Week 2 against CLE. He finished above his own 94-per-game average in 9 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 9 of 17 games, and more than one in 5 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 59 yards. That single play is worth about 63% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 54% across his first 5 recorded games and 54% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 21 targets and 307 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL vs BUF | 1/1 | 169 | 2 | 57% | 49 |
| 2 | BAL vs CLE | 0/0 | 23 | 0 | 61% | 8 |
| 3 | BAL vs DET | 1/1 | 50 | 1 | 49% | 28 |
| 4 | BAL vs KC | 2/3 | 42 | 0 | 38% | 14 |
| 5 | BAL vs HOU | 0/1 | 33 | 1 | 65% | 7 |
| 6 | BAL vs LA | 1/2 | 122 | 0 | 49% | 12 |
| 8 | BAL vs CHI | 0/1 | 71 | 2 | 58% | 10 |
| 9 | BAL vs MIA | 1/1 | 119 | 0 | 64% | 35 |
| 10 | BAL vs MIN | 3/3 | 75 | 0 | 67% | 14 |
| 11 | BAL vs CLE | 2/2 | 103 | 1 | 54% | 59 |
| 12 | BAL vs NYJ | 2/2 | 64 | 2 | 56% | 19 |
| 13 | BAL vs CIN | 1/1 | 60 | 1 | 40% | 44 |
| 14 | BAL vs PIT | 1/2 | 94 | 0 | 54% | 19 |
| 15 | BAL vs CIN | 0/0 | 100 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | BAL vs NE | 0/0 | 128 | 2 | 44% | 23 |
| 17 | BAL vs GB | 0/0 | 216 | 4 | 63% | 30 |
| 18 | BAL vs PIT | 0/1 | 126 | 0 | 71% | 41 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | 41 | 1,538 | 96.1 | 14 | 20.3 |
| 2023 | 17 | 36 | 1,167 | 68.6 | 14 | 15.6 |
| 2024 | 17 | 22 | 1,921 | 113 | 18 | 20.4 |
| 2025 | 17 | 21 | 1,595 | 93.8 | 16 | 17.1 |
CAREER VS IND
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Wk 13 | TEN | 1/2 | 102 | 2 |
| 2023 | Wk 5 | TEN | 3/3 | 43 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 7 | TEN | 3/3 | 128 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 4 | TEN | 3/5 | 114 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Derrick Henry is tagged as RB1 for BAL. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with IND ranked #11 vs RB and allowing 18.1 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator