Week 1 NFL player projection
Zay Flowers
PROJECTION
Zay Flowers is a BAL WR facing IND in Week 1. He averaged 71 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 6 to 143. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
81
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5.8
Receptions
BAL vs IND · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Zay Flowers is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 53.6 in 2023 to 71.2 in 2025 — up 33% — on 108 then 118 targets.
Measured against this week's 81.1 projection, he cleared it in 4 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 68.8 receiving yards per game early, then 73.4 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
71.2
Receiving Yards / game
4/17
games clearing this projection
118
targets
87%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (72). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (81.1). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 143 receiving yards in Week 1 against BUF; the quietest was 6 in Week 13 against CIN. He finished above his own 71-per-game average in 9 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 5 of 17 games, and more than one in 1 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 64 yards. That single play is worth about 90% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 85% across his first 5 recorded games and 88% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 118 targets and 10 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL vs BUF | 7/9 | 143 | 1 | 90% | 39 |
| 2 | BAL vs CLE | 7/11 | 75 | 0 | 79% | 19 |
| 3 | BAL vs DET | 2/3 | 13 | 0 | 86% | 7 |
| 4 | BAL vs KC | 7/8 | 74 | 0 | 87% | 21 |
| 5 | BAL vs HOU | 5/5 | 72 | 0 | 84% | 56 |
| 6 | BAL vs LA | 6/10 | 46 | 0 | 91% | 18 |
| 8 | BAL vs CHI | 7/9 | 63 | 0 | 95% | 20 |
| 9 | BAL vs MIA | 5/5 | 64 | 0 | 82% | 39 |
| 10 | BAL vs MIN | 4/6 | 75 | 0 | 83% | 27 |
| 11 | BAL vs CLE | 3/5 | 78 | 0 | 89% | 45 |
| 12 | BAL vs NYJ | 5/6 | 58 | 0 | 84% | 20 |
| 13 | BAL vs CIN | 2/7 | 6 | 0 | 95% | 5 |
| 14 | BAL vs PIT | 8/11 | 124 | 0 | 92% | 35 |
| 15 | BAL vs CIN | 3/5 | 68 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | BAL vs NE | 7/7 | 84 | 1 | 89% | 19 |
| 17 | BAL vs GB | 4/5 | 30 | 1 | 68% | 13 |
| 18 | BAL vs PIT | 4/6 | 138 | 2 | 98% | 64 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16 | 108 | 858 | 53.6 | 6 | 15.2 |
| 2024 | 17 | 116 | 1,059 | 62.3 | 4 | 14.5 |
| 2025 | 17 | 118 | 1,211 | 71.2 | 6 | 16.9 |
CAREER VS IND
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Wk 3 | BAL | 8/10 | 48 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Zay Flowers is tagged as WR1 for BAL. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with IND ranked #30 vs WR and allowing 29.1 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator