Week 1 NFL player projection
Rashod Bateman
PROJECTION
Rashod Bateman is a BAL WR facing IND in Week 1. He averaged 17 receiving yards across 13 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 63. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE RASHOD BATEMAN IS TRENDING
The trend on Rashod Bateman points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 24.5 in 2023 to 17.2 in 2025 — down 30%.
Availability is part of the story: 13 games on record in 2025, best of 63 in Week 3, worst of 0.
Measured against this week's 54.1 projection, he cleared it in 1 of 13 games last season.
Split his 13 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 20 receiving yards per game early, then 14.9 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
54
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.8
Receptions
BAL vs IND · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
17.2
Receiving Yards / game
1/13
games clearing this projection
38
targets
69%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (10). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (54.1). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 63 receiving yards in Week 3 against DET; the quietest was 0 in Week 16 against NE. He finished above his own 17-per-game average in 4 of 13 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 2 of 13 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 36 yards. That single play is worth about 209% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 68% across his first 4 recorded games and 70% across his last 4. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 38 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL vs BUF | 2/4 | 10 | 0 | 73% | 5 |
| 2 | BAL vs CLE | 2/4 | 15 | 0 | 59% | 10 |
| 3 | BAL vs DET | 5/7 | 63 | 1 | 60% | 20 |
| 4 | BAL vs KC | 1/2 | 24 | 0 | 80% | 24 |
| 5 | BAL vs HOU | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 81% | -- |
| 6 | BAL vs LA | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 56% | 8 |
| 8 | BAL vs CHI | 2/4 | 51 | 0 | 79% | 36 |
| 9 | BAL vs MIA | 2/4 | 13 | 1 | 71% | 9 |
| 10 | BAL vs MIN | 1/2 | 10 | 0 | 61% | 10 |
| 13 | BAL vs CIN | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 73% | -- |
| 14 | BAL vs PIT | 2/3 | 23 | 0 | 86% | 18 |
| 16 | BAL vs NE | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 69% | -- |
| 17 | BAL vs GB | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 53% | 7 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6 | 28 | 285 | 47.5 | 2 | 10.3 |
| 2023 | 15 | 56 | 367 | 24.5 | 1 | 6.2 |
| 2024 | 16 | 72 | 756 | 47.2 | 9 | 12.3 |
| 2025 | 13 | 38 | 224 | 17.2 | 2 | 4.8 |
CAREER VS IND
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Wk 3 | BAL | 1/3 | 6 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Rashod Bateman is tagged as WR2 rotation for BAL. The page uses top-2 WR projection volume for BAL, then layers in a softer prior matchup with IND ranked #30 vs WR and allowing 29.1 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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