Week 1 NFL player projection
Brian Thomas Jr.
PROJECTION
Brian Thomas Jr. is a JAX WR facing CLE in Week 1. He averaged 51 receiving yards across 14 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 11 to 90. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE BRIAN THOMAS JR. IS TRENDING
The trend on Brian Thomas Jr. points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 75.4 in 2024 to 50.5 in 2025 — down 33%.
Availability is part of the story: 14 games on record in 2025, best of 90 in Week 6, worst of 11.
Measured against this week's 63 projection, he cleared it in 4 of 14 games last season.
Split his 14 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 52.1 receiving yards per game early, then 48.9 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
63
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5.1
Receptions
JAX vs CLE · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
50.5
Receiving Yards / game
4/14
games clearing this projection
91
targets
--
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (49). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (63). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 90 receiving yards in Week 6 against SEA; the quietest was 11 in Week 1 against CAR. He finished above his own 51-per-game average in 6 of 14 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 3 of 14 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 46 yards. That single play is worth about 91% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
Across those games he handled 91 targets and 3 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX vs CAR | 1/7 | 11 | 1 | -- | 11 |
| 2 | JAX vs CIN | 4/12 | 49 | 0 | -- | 18 |
| 3 | JAX vs HOU | 2/6 | 55 | 0 | -- | 46 |
| 4 | JAX vs SF | 5/7 | 49 | 0 | -- | 14 |
| 5 | JAX vs KC | 4/6 | 80 | 0 | -- | 33 |
| 6 | JAX vs SEA | 8/10 | 90 | 1 | -- | 22 |
| 7 | JAX vs LA | 3/7 | 31 | 0 | -- | 24 |
| 9 | JAX vs LV | 3/5 | 55 | 0 | -- | 34 |
| 13 | JAX vs TEN | 2/3 | 28 | 0 | -- | 17 |
| 14 | JAX vs IND | 3/6 | 87 | 0 | -- | 39 |
| 15 | JAX vs NYJ | 4/7 | 66 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | JAX vs DEN | 2/3 | 18 | 0 | -- | 9 |
| 17 | JAX vs IND | 4/7 | 39 | 0 | -- | 17 |
| 18 | JAX vs TEN | 3/5 | 49 | 0 | -- | 22 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | 133 | 1,282 | 75.4 | 10 | 19 |
| 2025 | 14 | 91 | 707 | 50.5 | 3 | 11.5 |
CAREER VS CLE
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 2 | JAX | 2/4 | 94 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Brian Thomas Jr. is tagged as WR3 rotation for JAX. The page uses top-3 WR projection volume for JAX, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with CLE ranked #8 vs WR and allowing 21.4 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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