Week 1 NFL player projection
Jakobi Meyers
PROJECTION
Jakobi Meyers is a JAX WR facing CLE in Week 1. He averaged 52 receiving yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 23 to 97. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
66
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5.1
Receptions
JAX vs CLE · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Jakobi Meyers has been consistent rather than trending. 52.2 receiving yards per game in 2025, compared with 57.4 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 66.4 projection, he cleared it in 4 of 16 games last season.
Split his 16 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 49.1 receiving yards per game early, then 55.2 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
52.2
Receiving Yards / game
4/16
games clearing this projection
110
targets
85%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (44.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (66.4). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 97 receiving yards in Week 1 against NE; the quietest was 23 in Week 9 against JAX. He finished above his own 52-per-game average in 6 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 3 of 16 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 50 yards. That single play is worth about 96% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 93% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 87% across his last 5 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 110 targets and 5 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV vs NE | 8/10 | 97 | 0 | 94% | 24 |
| 2 | LV vs LAC | 6/12 | 68 | 0 | 93% | 25 |
| 3 | LV vs WAS | 3/4 | 63 | 0 | 94% | 45 |
| 4 | LV vs CHI | 4/7 | 30 | 0 | 98% | 10 |
| 5 | LV vs IND | 4/6 | 32 | 0 | 88% | 16 |
| 6 | LV vs TEN | 4/4 | 39 | 0 | 90% | 16 |
| 9 | LV vs JAX | 4/6 | 23 | 0 | 89% | 7 |
| 10 | JAX vs HOU | 3/3 | 41 | 0 | 44% | 23 |
| 11 | JAX vs LAC | 5/6 | 64 | 0 | 65% | 21 |
| 12 | JAX vs ARI | 4/6 | 50 | 1 | 84% | 17 |
| 13 | JAX vs TEN | 6/6 | 90 | 1 | 92% | 50 |
| 14 | JAX vs IND | 4/10 | 39 | 1 | 83% | 14 |
| 15 | JAX vs NYJ | 5/7 | 71 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | JAX vs DEN | 4/8 | 45 | 0 | 86% | 25 |
| 17 | JAX vs IND | 6/9 | 39 | 0 | 94% | 9 |
| 18 | JAX vs TEN | 5/6 | 44 | 0 | 79% | 17 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 14 | 96 | 804 | 57.4 | 6 | 15.5 |
| 2023 | 16 | 106 | 807 | 50.4 | 11 | 16 |
| 2024 | 15 | 129 | 1,027 | 68.5 | 4 | 17.3 |
| 2025 | 16 | 110 | 835 | 52.2 | 3 | 13.2 |
CAREER VS CLE
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 4 | LV | 5/10 | 49 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 6 | NE | 4/4 | 60 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Jakobi Meyers is tagged as WR1 for JAX. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with CLE ranked #8 vs WR and allowing 21.4 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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