Week 1 NFL player projection
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
PROJECTION
Chris Rodriguez Jr. is a JAX RB facing CLE in Week 1. He averaged 42 rushing yards across 12 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 2 to 79. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
53
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1.2
Receptions
JAX vs CLE · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Chris Rodriguez Jr. is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 30.9 in 2023 to 41.7 in 2025 — up 35% — on 2 then 4 targets.
Measured against this week's 53.1 projection, he cleared it in 5 of 12 games last season.
Split his 12 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 30.7 rushing yards per game early, then 52.7 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
41.7
Rushing Yards / game
5/12
games clearing this projection
4
targets
34%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (46.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (53.1). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 79 rushing yards in Week 11 against MIA; the quietest was 2 in Week 8 against KC. He finished above his own 42-per-game average in 6 of 12 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 6 of 12 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 48 yards. That single play is worth about 115% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 28% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 44% across his last 4 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 4 targets and 112 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | WAS vs LV | 0/0 | 39 | 0 | 38% | 14 |
| 4 | WAS vs ATL | 0/0 | 59 | 0 | 35% | 48 |
| 5 | WAS vs LAC | 0/0 | 7 | 0 | 25% | 3 |
| 7 | WAS vs DAL | 0/0 | 12 | 1 | 13% | 7 |
| 8 | WAS vs KC | 0/0 | 2 | 0 | 4% | 2 |
| 9 | WAS vs SEA | 0/0 | 65 | 1 | 34% | 12 |
| 10 | WAS vs DET | 0/0 | 16 | 1 | 33% | 9 |
| 11 | WAS vs MIA | 1/1 | 79 | 0 | 45% | 17 |
| 13 | WAS vs DEN | 0/1 | 41 | 1 | 41% | 11 |
| 14 | WAS vs MIN | 0/0 | 52 | 0 | 42% | 15 |
| 16 | WAS vs PHI | 1/1 | 63 | 1 | 52% | 20 |
| 18 | WAS vs PHI | 1/1 | 65 | 1 | 42% | 18 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 8 | 2 | 247 | 30.9 | 2 | 5 |
| 2024 | 6 | 1 | 173 | 28.8 | 2 | 5.3 |
| 2025 | 12 | 4 | 500 | 41.7 | 6 | 7.8 |
CAREER VS CLE
No career game against CLE on record in the 2022-2025 seasons WinForge stores. There is no head-to-head sample to lean on here, which is itself worth knowing.
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Chris Rodriguez Jr. is tagged as RB1 for JAX. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with CLE ranked #15 vs RB and allowing 19.5 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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