Week 1 NFL player projection
Trevor Lawrence
PROJECTION
Trevor Lawrence is a JAX QB facing CLE in Week 1. He averaged 236 passing yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 153 to 330. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
235
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
JAX vs CLE · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Trevor Lawrence has been consistent rather than trending. 235.7 passing yards per game in 2025, compared with 241.9 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 235.2 projection, he cleared it in 9 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 230 passing yards per game early, then 240.8 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
235.7
Passing Yards / game
9/17
games clearing this projection
38
touchdowns
97%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (244). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (235.2). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 330 passing yards in Week 15 against NYJ; the quietest was 153 in Week 11 against LAC. He finished above his own 236-per-game average in 9 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 16 of 17 games, and more than one in 12 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 63 yards. That single play is worth about 27% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 100% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 94% across his last 5 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
He also carried the ball 82 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX vs CAR | 0/0 | 178 | 1 | 100% | 24 |
| 2 | JAX vs CIN | 0/0 | 271 | 3 | 100% | 40 |
| 3 | JAX vs HOU | 0/0 | 222 | 0 | 100% | 46 |
| 4 | JAX vs SF | 0/0 | 174 | 1 | 100% | 28 |
| 5 | JAX vs KC | 0/0 | 221 | 3 | 100% | 44 |
| 6 | JAX vs SEA | 0/0 | 258 | 2 | 100% | 26 |
| 7 | JAX vs LA | 0/0 | 296 | 1 | 100% | 39 |
| 9 | JAX vs LV | 0/0 | 220 | 2 | 100% | 34 |
| 10 | JAX vs HOU | 0/0 | 158 | 1 | 100% | 23 |
| 11 | JAX vs LAC | 0/0 | 153 | 2 | 89% | 21 |
| 12 | JAX vs ARI | 0/0 | 256 | 3 | 100% | 30 |
| 13 | JAX vs TEN | 0/0 | 229 | 2 | 95% | 50 |
| 14 | JAX vs IND | 0/0 | 244 | 2 | 91% | 39 |
| 15 | JAX vs NYJ | 0/0 | 330 | 6 | -- | -- |
| 16 | JAX vs DEN | 0/0 | 279 | 4 | 100% | 63 |
| 17 | JAX vs IND | 0/0 | 263 | 2 | 100% | 37 |
| 18 | JAX vs TEN | 0/0 | 255 | 3 | 82% | 29 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 0 | 4,113 | 241.9 | 30 | 20.5 |
| 2023 | 16 | 0 | 4,016 | 251 | 25 | 19.4 |
| 2024 | 10 | 0 | 2,045 | 204.5 | 14 | 16.3 |
| 2025 | 17 | 0 | 4,007 | 235.7 | 38 | 23.4 |
CAREER VS CLE
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 2 | JAX | 0/0 | 220 | 0 |
| 2023 | Wk 14 | JAX | 0/0 | 257 | 3 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Trevor Lawrence is tagged as starter for JAX. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with CLE ranked #4 vs QB and allowing 13.6 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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