Week 1 NFL player projection
Travis Hunter
PROJECTION
Travis Hunter is a JAX WR facing CLE in Week 1. He averaged 43 receiving yards across 7 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 15 to 101. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
52
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.5
Receptions
JAX vs CLE · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
The record on Travis Hunter is short: 7 games in 2025 for 298 receiving yards. That is too small a sample to call a trend, so the projection leans on role and matchup rather than his own history.
Measured against this week's 51.6 projection, he cleared it in 2 of 7 games last season.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
42.6
Receiving Yards / game
2/7
games clearing this projection
45
targets
66%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (33). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (51.6). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 101 receiving yards in Week 7 against LA; the quietest was 15 in Week 6 against SEA. He finished above his own 43-per-game average in 2 of 7 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 1 of 7 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 44 yards. That single play is worth about 103% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 62% of snaps across his first 2 recorded games, then 83% across his last 2 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 45 targets and 1 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX vs CAR | 6/8 | 33 | 0 | 64% | 10 |
| 2 | JAX vs CIN | 3/6 | 22 | 0 | 59% | 9 |
| 3 | JAX vs HOU | 1/2 | 21 | 0 | 53% | 21 |
| 4 | JAX vs SF | 3/5 | 42 | 0 | 56% | 28 |
| 5 | JAX vs KC | 3/3 | 64 | 0 | 67% | 44 |
| 6 | JAX vs SEA | 4/7 | 15 | 0 | 78% | 14 |
| 7 | JAX vs LA | 8/14 | 101 | 1 | 87% | 34 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7 | 45 | 298 | 42.6 | 1 | 11.1 |
CAREER VS CLE
No career game against CLE on record in the 2022-2025 seasons WinForge stores. There is no head-to-head sample to lean on here, which is itself worth knowing.
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Travis Hunter is tagged as WR4 rotation for JAX. The page uses top-4 WR projection volume for JAX, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with CLE ranked #8 vs WR and allowing 21.4 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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