Week 1 NFL player projection
Calvin Austin III
PROJECTION
Calvin Austin III is a NYG WR facing DAL in Week 1. He averaged 27 receiving yards across 14 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 70. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
47
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.8
Receptions
NYG vs DAL · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Calvin Austin III is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 12.9 in 2023 to 26.6 in 2025 — up 106% — on 30 then 55 targets.
Measured against this week's 46.7 projection, he cleared it in 3 of 14 games last season.
Split his 14 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 33.9 receiving yards per game early, then 19.3 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
26.6
Receiving Yards / game
3/14
games clearing this projection
55
targets
56%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (25). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (46.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 70 receiving yards in Week 1 against NYJ; the quietest was 0 in Week 15 against MIA. He finished above his own 27-per-game average in 7 of 14 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 3 of 14 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 31 yards. That single play is worth about 117% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 74% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 36% across his last 4 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 55 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT vs NYJ | 4/6 | 70 | 1 | 80% | 30 |
| 2 | PIT vs SEA | 1/4 | 22 | 0 | 92% | 22 |
| 3 | PIT vs NE | 3/5 | 34 | 1 | 72% | 17 |
| 4 | PIT vs MIN | 2/2 | 13 | 0 | 51% | 8 |
| 8 | PIT vs GB | 4/6 | 28 | 0 | 78% | 13 |
| 9 | PIT vs IND | 5/6 | 56 | 0 | 56% | 18 |
| 10 | PIT vs LAC | 2/7 | 14 | 0 | 73% | 8 |
| 11 | PIT vs CIN | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 29% | 5 |
| 12 | PIT vs CHI | 4/5 | 36 | 0 | 46% | 19 |
| 13 | PIT vs BUF | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 49% | -- |
| 14 | PIT vs BAL | 1/2 | 31 | 0 | 31% | 31 |
| 15 | PIT vs MIA | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | PIT vs DET | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 16% | 8 |
| 18 | PIT vs BAL | 3/7 | 55 | 1 | 49% | 26 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 14 | 30 | 180 | 12.9 | 2 | 4.4 |
| 2024 | 17 | 58 | 548 | 32.2 | 4 | 7.8 |
| 2025 | 14 | 55 | 372 | 26.6 | 3 | 7.3 |
CAREER VS DAL
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 5 | PIT | 1/2 | 6 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Calvin Austin III is tagged as WR4 rotation for NYG. The page uses top-4 WR projection volume for NYG, then layers in a softer prior matchup with DAL ranked #32 vs WR and allowing 32.3 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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