Week 1 NFL player projection
Darius Slayton
PROJECTION
Darius Slayton is a NYG WR facing DAL in Week 1. He averaged 38 receiving yards across 14 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 89. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE DARIUS SLAYTON IS TRENDING
The trend on Darius Slayton points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 55.7 in 2022 to 38.4 in 2025 — down 31%.
Availability is part of the story: 14 games on record in 2025, best of 89 in Week 10, worst of 0.
Measured against this week's 53 projection, he cleared it in 4 of 14 games last season.
Split his 14 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 36.3 receiving yards per game early, then 40.6 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
53
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.4
Receptions
NYG vs DAL · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
38.4
Receiving Yards / game
4/14
games clearing this projection
63
targets
81%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (35). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (53). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 89 receiving yards in Week 10 against CHI; the quietest was 0 in Week 1 against WAS. He finished above his own 38-per-game average in 6 of 14 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 1 of 14 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 52 yards. That single play is worth about 135% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 90% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 83% across his last 4 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 63 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG vs WAS | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 97% | -- |
| 2 | NYG vs DAL | 2/3 | 61 | 0 | 99% | 52 |
| 3 | NYG vs KC | 4/4 | 30 | 0 | 76% | 14 |
| 4 | NYG vs LAC | 3/4 | 44 | 0 | 87% | 18 |
| 5 | NYG vs NO | 3/6 | 31 | 0 | 75% | 16 |
| 8 | NYG vs PHI | 2/5 | 26 | 0 | 73% | 19 |
| 9 | NYG vs SF | 5/7 | 62 | 0 | 89% | 24 |
| 10 | NYG vs CHI | 4/4 | 89 | 0 | 62% | 38 |
| 12 | NYG vs DET | 1/2 | 23 | 0 | 63% | 23 |
| 13 | NYG vs NE | 2/3 | 41 | 1 | 76% | 30 |
| 15 | NYG vs WAS | 4/10 | 53 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | NYG vs MIN | 1/2 | 8 | 0 | 79% | 8 |
| 17 | NYG vs LV | 2/3 | 36 | 0 | 88% | 21 |
| 18 | NYG vs DAL | 4/9 | 34 | 0 | 87% | 17 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 13 | 71 | 724 | 55.7 | 2 | 11.7 |
| 2023 | 17 | 79 | 770 | 45.3 | 4 | 10.4 |
| 2024 | 16 | 71 | 573 | 35.8 | 2 | 8.1 |
| 2025 | 14 | 63 | 538 | 38.4 | 1 | 8 |
CAREER VS DAL
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 18 | NYG | 4/9 | 34 | 0 |
| 2025 | Wk 2 | NYG | 2/3 | 61 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 13 | NYG | 2/6 | 8 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 4 | NYG | 3/5 | 56 | 0 |
| 2023 | Wk 10 | NYG | 3/4 | 21 | 0 |
| 2023 | Wk 1 | NYG | 3/5 | 15 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 12 | NYG | 3/6 | 63 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Darius Slayton is tagged as WR2 rotation for NYG. The page uses top-2 WR projection volume for NYG, then layers in a softer prior matchup with DAL ranked #32 vs WR and allowing 32.3 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator