Week 1 NFL player projection
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
PROJECTION
Tyrone Tracy Jr. is a NYG RB facing DAL in Week 1. He averaged 49 rushing yards across 15 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 6 to 103. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
52
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
2.1
Receptions
NYG vs DAL · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has been consistent rather than trending. 49.3 rushing yards per game in 2025, compared with 49.4 in 2024 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 51.8 projection, he cleared it in 7 of 15 games last season.
Split his 15 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 25.3 rushing yards per game early, then 70.4 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
49.3
Rushing Yards / game
7/15
games clearing this projection
48
targets
53%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (46). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (51.8). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 103 rushing yards in Week 18 against DAL; the quietest was 6 in Week 6 against PHI. He finished above his own 49-per-game average in 7 of 15 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 3 of 15 games, and more than one in 1 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 42 yards. That single play is worth about 85% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 41% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 62% across his last 4 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 48 targets and 176 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG vs WAS | 2/5 | 24 | 0 | 74% | 6 |
| 2 | NYG vs DAL | 4/5 | 15 | 0 | 42% | 14 |
| 3 | NYG vs KC | 2/3 | 29 | 0 | 17% | 10 |
| 6 | NYG vs PHI | 0/0 | 6 | 0 | 30% | 3 |
| 7 | NYG vs DEN | 0/0 | 46 | 1 | 36% | 31 |
| 8 | NYG vs PHI | 2/3 | 39 | 0 | 63% | 9 |
| 9 | NYG vs SF | 3/4 | 18 | 0 | 44% | 11 |
| 10 | NYG vs CHI | 1/2 | 71 | 0 | 67% | 16 |
| 11 | NYG vs GB | 4/4 | 88 | 0 | 51% | 20 |
| 12 | NYG vs DET | 3/4 | 62 | 0 | 71% | 42 |
| 13 | NYG vs NE | 1/1 | 36 | 0 | 49% | 9 |
| 15 | NYG vs WAS | 3/4 | 70 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 16 | NYG vs MIN | 2/2 | 71 | 0 | 62% | 18 |
| 17 | NYG vs LV | 1/2 | 62 | 0 | 66% | 23 |
| 18 | NYG vs DAL | 8/9 | 103 | 1 | 69% | 20 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | 53 | 839 | 49.4 | 6 | 12 |
| 2025 | 15 | 48 | 740 | 49.3 | 4 | 11.9 |
CAREER VS DAL
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 18 | NYG | 8/9 | 103 | 1 |
| 2025 | Wk 2 | NYG | 4/5 | 15 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 13 | NYG | 2/3 | 32 | 1 |
| 2024 | Wk 4 | NYG | 1/1 | 2 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Tyrone Tracy Jr. is tagged as RB1 for NYG. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with DAL ranked #27 vs RB and allowing 23.0 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator