Week 1 NFL player projection
Jaxson Dart
PROJECTION
Jaxson Dart is a NYG QB facing DAL in Week 1. He averaged 162 passing yards across 14 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 283. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
204
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
NYG vs DAL · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
The record on Jaxson Dart is short: 14 games in 2025 for 2,272 passing yards. That is too small a sample to call a trend, so the projection leans on role and matchup rather than his own history.
Measured against this week's 203.7 projection, he cleared it in 5 of 14 games last season.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
162.3
Passing Yards / game
5/14
games clearing this projection
24
touchdowns
83%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (194). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (203.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 283 passing yards in Week 7 against DEN; the quietest was 0 in Week 3 against KC. He finished above his own 162-per-game average in 9 of 14 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 11 of 14 games, and more than one in 10 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 44 yards. That single play is worth about 27% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 52% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 100% across his last 4 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
He also carried the ball 86 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NYG vs DAL | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -- |
| 3 | NYG vs KC | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 5% | 3 |
| 4 | NYG vs LAC | 0/0 | 111 | 2 | 97% | 18 |
| 5 | NYG vs NO | 0/0 | 202 | 2 | 100% | 20 |
| 6 | NYG vs PHI | 0/0 | 195 | 2 | 97% | 35 |
| 7 | NYG vs DEN | 0/0 | 283 | 4 | 100% | 44 |
| 8 | NYG vs PHI | 0/0 | 193 | 2 | 100% | 34 |
| 9 | NYG vs SF | 0/0 | 191 | 3 | 100% | 24 |
| 10 | NYG vs CHI | 0/0 | 242 | 2 | 71% | 38 |
| 13 | NYG vs NE | 0/0 | 139 | 1 | 100% | 30 |
| 15 | NYG vs WAS | 0/0 | 246 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 16 | NYG vs MIN | 0/0 | 33 | 0 | 100% | 14 |
| 17 | NYG vs LV | 0/0 | 207 | 2 | 100% | 36 |
| 18 | NYG vs DAL | 0/0 | 230 | 2 | 100% | 29 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14 | 0 | 2,272 | 162.3 | 24 | 19.4 |
CAREER VS DAL
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 18 | NYG | 0/0 | 230 | 2 |
| 2025 | Wk 2 | NYG | 0/0 | 0 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Jaxson Dart is tagged as starter for NYG. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with DAL ranked #32 vs QB and allowing 23.4 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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