Week 1 NFL player projection
Darnell Mooney
PROJECTION
Darnell Mooney is a NYG WR facing DAL in Week 1. He averaged 30 receiving yards across 15 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 6 to 74. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE DARNELL MOONEY IS TRENDING
The trend on Darnell Mooney points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 44.8 in 2022 to 29.5 in 2025 — down 34%.
Availability is part of the story: 15 games on record in 2025, best of 74 in Week 12, worst of 6.
Measured against this week's 52 projection, he cleared it in 2 of 15 games last season.
Split his 15 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 27.1 receiving yards per game early, then 31.6 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
52
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.3
Receptions
NYG vs DAL · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
29.5
Receiving Yards / game
2/15
games clearing this projection
72
targets
81%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (24). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (52). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 74 receiving yards in Week 12 against NO; the quietest was 6 in Week 14 against SEA. He finished above his own 30-per-game average in 6 of 15 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 1 of 15 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 49 yards. That single play is worth about 166% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 76% across his first 4 recorded games and 75% across his last 4. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 72 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ATL vs MIN | 2/4 | 20 | 0 | 86% | 11 |
| 3 | ATL vs CAR | 4/11 | 44 | 0 | 89% | 21 |
| 4 | ATL vs WAS | 1/1 | 15 | 0 | 45% | 15 |
| 7 | ATL vs SF | 3/5 | 68 | 0 | 83% | 38 |
| 8 | ATL vs MIA | 1/4 | 11 | 0 | 90% | 11 |
| 9 | ATL vs NE | 1/2 | 15 | 0 | 100% | 15 |
| 10 | ATL vs IND | 1/8 | 17 | 0 | 90% | 17 |
| 11 | ATL vs CAR | 3/7 | 34 | 0 | 92% | 20 |
| 12 | ATL vs NO | 3/3 | 74 | 1 | 66% | 49 |
| 13 | ATL vs NYJ | 2/5 | 25 | 0 | 96% | 16 |
| 14 | ATL vs SEA | 1/4 | 6 | 0 | 77% | 6 |
| 15 | ATL vs TB | 3/6 | 35 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | ATL vs ARI | 2/2 | 24 | 0 | 70% | 17 |
| 17 | ATL vs LA | 2/3 | 35 | 0 | 70% | 22 |
| 18 | ATL vs NO | 3/7 | 20 | 0 | 83% | 10 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11 | 61 | 493 | 44.8 | 2 | 11 |
| 2023 | 14 | 61 | 414 | 29.6 | 1 | 6.7 |
| 2024 | 16 | 106 | 992 | 62 | 5 | 14.1 |
| 2025 | 15 | 72 | 443 | 29.5 | 1 | 6.5 |
CAREER VS DAL
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 9 | ATL | 5/9 | 88 | 1 |
| 2022 | Wk 8 | CHI | 5/5 | 70 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Darnell Mooney is tagged as WR3 rotation for NYG. The page uses top-3 WR projection volume for NYG, then layers in a softer prior matchup with DAL ranked #32 vs WR and allowing 32.3 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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