Week 1 NFL player projection
Calvin Ridley
PROJECTION
Calvin Ridley is a TEN WR facing NYJ in Week 1. He averaged 43 receiving yards across 7 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 13 to 131. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
48
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.9
Receptions
TEN vs NYJ · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Calvin Ridley has been consistent rather than trending. 59.8 receiving yards per game in 2024, compared with 59.8 in 2023 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 47.7 projection, he cleared it in 2 of 7 games last season.
Split his 7 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 37 receiving yards per game early, then 48 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
43.3
Receiving Yards / game
2/7
games clearing this projection
36
targets
57%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (27). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (47.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 131 receiving yards in Week 5 against ARI; the quietest was 13 in Week 11 against HOU. He finished above his own 43-per-game average in 2 of 7 games.
He did not account for a touchdown in any of his 7 recorded 2025 games, so none of the projection above leans on touchdown equity.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 47 yards. That single play is worth about 109% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 91% of snaps across his first 2 recorded games, then 6% across his last 2 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 36 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN vs DEN | 4/8 | 27 | 0 | 95% | 13 |
| 2 | TEN vs LA | 3/6 | 57 | 0 | 86% | 26 |
| 3 | TEN vs IND | 1/7 | 27 | 0 | 87% | 27 |
| 4 | TEN vs HOU | 2/3 | 30 | 0 | 54% | 22 |
| 5 | TEN vs ARI | 5/10 | 131 | 0 | 66% | 47 |
| 6 | TEN vs LV | 1/1 | 18 | 0 | 10% | 18 |
| 11 | TEN vs HOU | 1/1 | 13 | 0 | 2% | 13 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | 136 | 1,016 | 59.8 | 8 | 15.6 |
| 2024 | 17 | 120 | 1,017 | 59.8 | 5 | 13.7 |
| 2025 | 7 | 36 | 303 | 43.3 | 0 | 8 |
CAREER VS NYJ
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 2 | TEN | 4/6 | 77 | 2 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Calvin Ridley is tagged as WR3 rotation for TEN. The page uses top-3 WR projection volume for TEN, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with NYJ ranked #15 vs WR and allowing 24.2 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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