Week 1 NFL player projection
Elic Ayomanor
PROJECTION
Elic Ayomanor is a TEN WR facing NYJ in Week 1. He averaged 32 receiving yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 5 to 58. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
51
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.3
Receptions
TEN vs NYJ · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
The record on Elic Ayomanor is short: 16 games in 2025 for 515 receiving yards. That is too small a sample to call a trend, so the projection leans on role and matchup rather than his own history.
Measured against this week's 51.3 projection, he cleared it in 3 of 16 games last season.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
32.2
Receiving Yards / game
3/16
games clearing this projection
89
targets
81%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (33). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (51.3). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 58 receiving yards in Week 16 against KC; the quietest was 5 in Week 13 against JAX. He finished above his own 32-per-game average in 8 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 4 of 16 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 39 yards. That single play is worth about 121% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 76% across his first 5 recorded games and 79% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 89 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN vs DEN | 2/7 | 13 | 0 | 79% | 10 |
| 2 | TEN vs LA | 4/6 | 56 | 1 | 73% | 23 |
| 3 | TEN vs IND | 4/5 | 38 | 1 | 74% | 11 |
| 4 | TEN vs HOU | 2/7 | 44 | 0 | 82% | 33 |
| 5 | TEN vs ARI | 2/4 | 18 | 0 | 72% | 13 |
| 6 | TEN vs LV | 3/5 | 27 | 0 | 93% | 11 |
| 7 | TEN vs NE | 2/5 | 29 | 0 | 96% | 20 |
| 8 | TEN vs IND | 4/8 | 52 | 0 | 94% | 26 |
| 9 | TEN vs LAC | 3/6 | 46 | 0 | 64% | 29 |
| 11 | TEN vs HOU | 2/6 | 11 | 0 | 85% | 6 |
| 13 | TEN vs JAX | 1/5 | 5 | 0 | 85% | 5 |
| 14 | TEN vs CLE | 1/3 | 14 | 1 | 80% | 14 |
| 15 | TEN vs SF | 1/1 | 17 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | TEN vs KC | 3/4 | 58 | 0 | 56% | 25 |
| 17 | TEN vs NO | 4/7 | 37 | 1 | 81% | 14 |
| 18 | TEN vs JAX | 3/10 | 50 | 0 | 94% | 39 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16 | 89 | 515 | 32.2 | 4 | 8.5 |
CAREER VS NYJ
No career game against NYJ on record in the 2022-2025 seasons WinForge stores. There is no head-to-head sample to lean on here, which is itself worth knowing.
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Elic Ayomanor is tagged as WR2 rotation for TEN. The page uses top-2 WR projection volume for TEN, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with NYJ ranked #15 vs WR and allowing 24.2 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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