Week 1 NFL player projection
Tony Pollard
PROJECTION
Tony Pollard is a TEN RB facing NYJ in Week 1. He averaged 64 rushing yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 18 to 161. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
50
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1.5
Receptions
TEN vs NYJ · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Tony Pollard has been consistent rather than trending. 63.6 rushing yards per game in 2025, compared with 62.9 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 49.7 projection, he cleared it in 10 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 53 rushing yards per game early, then 73.1 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
63.6
Rushing Yards / game
10/17
games clearing this projection
41
targets
63%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (60). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (49.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 161 rushing yards in Week 14 against CLE; the quietest was 18 in Week 7 against NE. He finished above his own 64-per-game average in 7 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 4 of 17 games, and more than one in 1 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 65 yards. That single play is worth about 102% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 86% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 55% across his last 5 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 41 targets and 242 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN vs DEN | 1/1 | 60 | 0 | 89% | 29 |
| 2 | TEN vs LA | 0/1 | 92 | 0 | 89% | 10 |
| 3 | TEN vs IND | 2/4 | 45 | 1 | 91% | 11 |
| 4 | TEN vs HOU | 3/3 | 64 | 0 | 86% | 21 |
| 5 | TEN vs ARI | 3/3 | 67 | 1 | 73% | 14 |
| 6 | TEN vs LV | 2/2 | 34 | 0 | 43% | 17 |
| 7 | TEN vs NE | 6/6 | 18 | 0 | 57% | 10 |
| 8 | TEN vs IND | 1/2 | 44 | 0 | 46% | 11 |
| 9 | TEN vs LAC | 1/2 | 56 | 0 | 62% | 16 |
| 11 | TEN vs HOU | 3/3 | 22 | 0 | 49% | 9 |
| 12 | TEN vs SEA | 4/5 | 20 | 0 | 51% | 10 |
| 13 | TEN vs JAX | 1/2 | 60 | 0 | 46% | 15 |
| 14 | TEN vs CLE | 0/0 | 161 | 2 | 59% | 65 |
| 15 | TEN vs SF | 1/2 | 104 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | TEN vs KC | 0/0 | 102 | 0 | 55% | 15 |
| 17 | TEN vs NO | 2/2 | 85 | 0 | 50% | 25 |
| 18 | TEN vs JAX | 3/3 | 48 | 0 | 63% | 12 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | 55 | 1,007 | 62.9 | 12 | 16.8 |
| 2023 | 17 | 67 | 1,005 | 59.1 | 6 | 14.7 |
| 2024 | 16 | 57 | 1,079 | 67.4 | 5 | 13.8 |
| 2025 | 17 | 41 | 1,082 | 63.6 | 5 | 12 |
CAREER VS NYJ
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 2 | TEN | 5/6 | 62 | 0 |
| 2023 | Wk 2 | DAL | 7/8 | 72 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Tony Pollard is tagged as RB1 for TEN. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with NYJ ranked #32 vs RB and allowing 26.0 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator