Week 1 NFL player projection
Wan'Dale Robinson
PROJECTION
Wan'Dale Robinson is a TEN WR facing NYJ in Week 1. He averaged 63 receiving yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 14 to 156. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
60
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5.6
Receptions
TEN vs NYJ · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Wan'Dale Robinson is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 35 in 2023 to 63.4 in 2025 — up 81% — on 78 then 140 targets.
Measured against this week's 59.7 projection, he cleared it in 6 of 16 games last season.
Split his 16 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 61.8 receiving yards per game early, then 65 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
63.4
Receiving Yards / game
6/16
games clearing this projection
140
targets
90%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (51). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (59.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 156 receiving yards in Week 12 against DET; the quietest was 14 in Week 4 against LAC. He finished above his own 63-per-game average in 5 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 4 of 16 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 50 yards. That single play is worth about 79% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 83% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 91% across his last 5 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 140 targets and 3 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG vs WAS | 6/8 | 55 | 0 | 76% | 20 |
| 2 | NYG vs DAL | 8/10 | 142 | 1 | 70% | 50 |
| 3 | NYG vs KC | 1/4 | 26 | 0 | 77% | 26 |
| 4 | NYG vs LAC | 3/5 | 14 | 0 | 97% | 8 |
| 5 | NYG vs NO | 5/7 | 30 | 0 | 95% | 12 |
| 6 | NYG vs PHI | 6/7 | 84 | 1 | 97% | 35 |
| 7 | NYG vs DEN | 6/12 | 95 | 0 | 91% | 23 |
| 8 | NYG vs PHI | 3/4 | 48 | 0 | 98% | 34 |
| 9 | NYG vs SF | 9/11 | 46 | 0 | 100% | 9 |
| 10 | NYG vs CHI | 6/11 | 62 | 0 | 99% | 15 |
| 11 | NYG vs GB | 4/9 | 36 | 0 | 97% | 20 |
| 12 | NYG vs DET | 9/14 | 156 | 1 | 83% | 40 |
| 13 | NYG vs NE | 7/8 | 34 | 0 | 100% | 8 |
| 15 | NYG vs WAS | 5/10 | 54 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | NYG vs MIN | 3/6 | 19 | 0 | 98% | 14 |
| 17 | NYG vs LV | 11/14 | 113 | 0 | 75% | 36 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6 | 31 | 227 | 37.8 | 1 | 10.5 |
| 2023 | 15 | 78 | 525 | 35 | 2 | 10.9 |
| 2024 | 17 | 140 | 699 | 41.1 | 3 | 13.5 |
| 2025 | 16 | 140 | 1,014 | 63.4 | 4 | 16.3 |
CAREER VS NYJ
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Wk 8 | NYG | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Wan'Dale Robinson is tagged as WR1 for TEN. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with NYJ ranked #15 vs WR and allowing 24.2 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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