Week 1 NFL player projection
De'Von Achane
PROJECTION
De'Von Achane is a MIA RB facing LV in Week 1. He averaged 84 rushing yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 16 to 174. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
58
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
2.6
Receptions
MIA vs LV · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
De'Von Achane has been consistent rather than trending. 84.4 rushing yards per game in 2025, compared with 72.7 in 2023 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 57.8 projection, he cleared it in 13 of 16 games last season.
Split his 16 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 67.4 rushing yards per game early, then 101.4 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
84.4
Rushing Yards / game
13/16
games clearing this projection
85
targets
75%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (81.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (57.8). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 174 rushing yards in Week 10 against BUF; the quietest was 16 in Week 5 against CAR. He finished above his own 84-per-game average in 6 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 10 of 16 games, and more than one in 2 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 59 yards. That single play is worth about 70% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 81% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 67% across his last 5 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 85 targets and 238 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA vs IND | 3/4 | 55 | 1 | 73% | 26 |
| 2 | MIA vs NE | 8/10 | 30 | 1 | 93% | 29 |
| 3 | MIA vs BUF | 7/9 | 62 | 0 | 77% | 15 |
| 4 | MIA vs NYJ | 1/2 | 99 | 1 | 76% | 21 |
| 5 | MIA vs CAR | 6/7 | 16 | 1 | 87% | 10 |
| 6 | MIA vs LAC | 4/6 | 128 | 2 | 85% | 49 |
| 7 | MIA vs CLE | 3/5 | 82 | 0 | 55% | 46 |
| 8 | MIA vs ATL | 5/7 | 67 | 1 | 67% | 12 |
| 9 | MIA vs BAL | 6/10 | 67 | 0 | 91% | 22 |
| 10 | MIA vs BUF | 6/6 | 174 | 2 | 89% | 59 |
| 11 | MIA vs WAS | 5/5 | 120 | 0 | 80% | 23 |
| 13 | MIA vs NO | 0/1 | 134 | 1 | 73% | 29 |
| 14 | MIA vs NYJ | 1/1 | 92 | 1 | 34% | 39 |
| 15 | MIA vs PIT | 6/6 | 60 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | MIA vs CIN | 3/3 | 81 | 1 | 71% | 48 |
| 17 | MIA vs TB | 3/3 | 83 | 0 | 75% | 20 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 11 | 37 | 800 | 72.7 | 11 | 18.7 |
| 2024 | 17 | 87 | 907 | 53.4 | 12 | 19.9 |
| 2025 | 16 | 85 | 1,350 | 84.4 | 12 | 22.1 |
CAREER VS LV
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 11 | MIA | 4/4 | 73 | 1 |
| 2023 | Wk 11 | MIA | 1/1 | 1 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
De'Von Achane is tagged as RB1 for MIA. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with LV ranked #15 vs RB and allowing 19.6 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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