Week 1 NFL player projection
Malik Washington
PROJECTION
Malik Washington is a MIA WR facing LV in Week 1. He averaged 19 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 48. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
49
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.9
Receptions
MIA vs LV · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Malik Washington has been consistent rather than trending. 18.6 receiving yards per game in 2025, compared with 18.6 in 2024 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 48.9 projection, he cleared it in 0 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 16.9 receiving yards per game early, then 20.2 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
18.6
Receiving Yards / game
0/17
games clearing this projection
65
targets
57%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (13). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (48.9). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 48 receiving yards in Week 9 against BAL; the quietest was 0 in Week 5 against CAR. He finished above his own 19-per-game average in 8 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 4 of 17 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 28 yards. That single play is worth about 150% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 56% across his first 5 recorded games and 60% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 65 targets and 17 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA vs IND | 2/5 | 20 | 0 | 58% | 11 |
| 2 | MIA vs NE | 1/2 | 2 | 0 | 61% | 18 |
| 3 | MIA vs BUF | 3/5 | 12 | 0 | 54% | 14 |
| 4 | MIA vs NYJ | 2/3 | 13 | 0 | 48% | 9 |
| 5 | MIA vs CAR | 4/5 | 0 | 0 | 58% | 8 |
| 6 | MIA vs LAC | 4/5 | 22 | 0 | 44% | 9 |
| 7 | MIA vs CLE | 5/8 | 30 | 0 | 64% | 14 |
| 8 | MIA vs ATL | 4/5 | 36 | 1 | 62% | 17 |
| 9 | MIA vs BAL | 3/3 | 48 | 0 | 70% | 28 |
| 10 | MIA vs BUF | 2/3 | 9 | 1 | 45% | 9 |
| 11 | MIA vs WAS | 3/3 | 42 | 0 | 50% | 18 |
| 13 | MIA vs NO | 4/5 | 30 | 0 | 60% | 19 |
| 14 | MIA vs NYJ | 3/4 | 10 | 0 | 52% | 9 |
| 15 | MIA vs PIT | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | MIA vs CIN | 1/1 | 23 | 1 | 53% | 23 |
| 17 | MIA vs TB | 1/3 | 4 | 0 | 64% | 4 |
| 18 | MIA vs NE | 3/4 | 6 | 1 | 70% | 14 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12 | 36 | 223 | 18.6 | 1 | 5.8 |
| 2025 | 17 | 65 | 317 | 18.6 | 4 | 7.9 |
CAREER VS LV
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 11 | MIA | 3/3 | 11 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Malik Washington is tagged as WR1 for MIA. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with LV ranked #27 vs WR and allowing 29.3 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator