Week 1 NFL player projection
Tutu Atwell
PROJECTION
Tutu Atwell is a MIA WR facing LV in Week 1. He averaged 24 receiving yards across 8 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 88. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
46
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.8
Receptions
MIA vs LV · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Tutu Atwell has been consistent rather than trending. 24 receiving yards per game in 2025, compared with 24.8 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 46.4 projection, he cleared it in 2 of 8 games last season.
Split his 8 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 23 receiving yards per game early, then 25 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
24
Receiving Yards / game
2/8
games clearing this projection
15
targets
36%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (6.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (46.4). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 88 receiving yards in Week 4 against IND; the quietest was 0 in Week 17 against ATL. He finished above his own 24-per-game average in 2 of 8 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 1 of 8 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 88 yards. That single play is worth about 367% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 43% of snaps across his first 2 recorded games, then 17% across his last 2 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 15 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA vs HOU | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 42% | 4 |
| 2 | LA vs TEN | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 43% | -- |
| 3 | LA vs PHI | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 38% | -- |
| 4 | LA vs IND | 1/2 | 88 | 1 | 28% | 88 |
| 5 | LA vs SF | 2/4 | 72 | 0 | 66% | 38 |
| 15 | LA vs DET | 1/2 | 9 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 17 | LA vs ATL | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 20% | -- |
| 18 | LA vs ARI | 1/3 | 19 | 0 | 13% | 19 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12 | 35 | 298 | 24.8 | 2 | 6 |
| 2023 | 14 | 67 | 483 | 34.5 | 3 | 9.1 |
| 2024 | 15 | 62 | 562 | 37.5 | 0 | 8 |
| 2025 | 8 | 15 | 192 | 24 | 1 | 4.2 |
CAREER VS LV
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 7 | LA | 6/9 | 51 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 14 | LA | 5/9 | 50 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Tutu Atwell is tagged as WR3 rotation for MIA. The page uses top-3 WR projection volume for MIA, then layers in a softer prior matchup with LV ranked #27 vs WR and allowing 29.3 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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