Week 1 NFL player projection
DJ Moore
PROJECTION
DJ Moore is a BUF WR facing HOU in Week 1. He averaged 40 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from -4 to 97. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE DJ MOORE IS TRENDING
The trend on DJ Moore points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 52.2 in 2022 to 40.1 in 2025 — down 23%.
Availability is part of the story: 17 games on record in 2025, best of 97 in Week 16, worst of -4.
Measured against this week's 57.1 projection, he cleared it in 6 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 50.4 receiving yards per game early, then 31 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
57
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.2
Receptions
BUF vs HOU · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
40.1
Receiving Yards / game
6/17
games clearing this projection
85
targets
85%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (42). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (57.1). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 97 receiving yards in Week 16 against GB; the quietest was -4 in Week 14 against GB. He finished above his own 40-per-game average in 9 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 5 of 17 games, and more than one in 3 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 46 yards. That single play is worth about 115% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 86% across his first 5 recorded games and 89% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 85 targets and 15 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI vs MIN | 3/5 | 68 | 0 | 84% | 30 |
| 2 | CHI vs DET | 5/6 | 46 | 0 | 88% | 18 |
| 3 | CHI vs DAL | 4/5 | 21 | 1 | 90% | 12 |
| 4 | CHI vs LV | 4/5 | 38 | 0 | 76% | 17 |
| 6 | CHI vs WAS | 3/5 | 42 | 0 | 94% | 17 |
| 7 | CHI vs NO | 3/5 | 43 | 0 | 87% | 26 |
| 8 | CHI vs BAL | 4/7 | 73 | 0 | 84% | 42 |
| 9 | CHI vs CIN | 4/6 | 72 | 2 | 85% | 23 |
| 10 | CHI vs NYG | 0/4 | 0 | 0 | 62% | -- |
| 11 | CHI vs MIN | 1/3 | 18 | 0 | 81% | 18 |
| 12 | CHI vs PIT | 5/7 | 64 | 2 | 77% | 25 |
| 13 | CHI vs PHI | 2/5 | 17 | 0 | 91% | 11 |
| 14 | CHI vs GB | 1/3 | -4 | 0 | 83% | -- |
| 15 | CHI vs CLE | 4/5 | 69 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 16 | CHI vs GB | 5/7 | 97 | 1 | 95% | 46 |
| 17 | CHI vs SF | 1/4 | 7 | 0 | 92% | 7 |
| 18 | CHI vs DET | 1/3 | 11 | 0 | 85% | 11 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 118 | 888 | 52.2 | 7 | 13.6 |
| 2023 | 17 | 136 | 1,364 | 80.2 | 9 | 19.7 |
| 2024 | 17 | 140 | 966 | 56.8 | 6 | 16.8 |
| 2025 | 17 | 85 | 682 | 40.1 | 8 | 11.6 |
CAREER VS HOU
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 2 | CHI | 6/10 | 53 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
DJ Moore is tagged as WR1 for BUF. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with HOU ranked #6 vs WR and allowing 21.0 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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