Week 1 NFL player projection
Keon Coleman
PROJECTION
Keon Coleman is a BUF WR facing HOU in Week 1. He averaged 34 receiving yards across 12 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 9 to 112. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE KEON COLEMAN IS TRENDING
The trend on Keon Coleman points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 42.8 in 2024 to 33.7 in 2025 — down 21%.
Availability is part of the story: 12 games on record in 2025, best of 112 in Week 1, worst of 9.
Measured against this week's 53.3 projection, he cleared it in 1 of 12 games last season.
Split his 12 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 39.5 receiving yards per game early, then 27.8 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
53
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.9
Receptions
BUF vs HOU · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
33.7
Receiving Yards / game
1/12
games clearing this projection
59
targets
66%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (24.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (53.3). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 112 receiving yards in Week 1 against BAL; the quietest was 9 in Week 13 against PIT. He finished above his own 34-per-game average in 4 of 12 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 4 of 12 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 37 yards. That single play is worth about 110% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 72% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 54% across his last 4 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 59 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF vs BAL | 8/11 | 112 | 1 | 88% | 25 |
| 2 | BUF vs NYJ | 3/3 | 26 | 0 | 51% | 12 |
| 3 | BUF vs MIA | 3/4 | 20 | 0 | 75% | 8 |
| 4 | BUF vs NO | 3/4 | 45 | 0 | 73% | 20 |
| 5 | BUF vs NE | 4/7 | 23 | 1 | 62% | 13 |
| 6 | BUF vs ATL | 3/6 | 11 | 0 | 86% | 11 |
| 8 | BUF vs CAR | 3/4 | 30 | 0 | 73% | 14 |
| 9 | BUF vs KC | 2/2 | 17 | 0 | 68% | 11 |
| 10 | BUF vs MIA | 3/8 | 46 | 1 | 62% | 35 |
| 13 | BUF vs PIT | 2/3 | 9 | 1 | 45% | 8 |
| 14 | BUF vs CIN | 2/3 | 16 | 0 | 28% | 8 |
| 18 | BUF vs NYJ | 2/4 | 49 | 0 | 81% | 37 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 13 | 57 | 556 | 42.8 | 4 | 9.5 |
| 2025 | 12 | 59 | 404 | 33.7 | 4 | 10 |
CAREER VS HOU
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 5 | BUF | 1/5 | 49 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Keon Coleman is tagged as WR3 rotation for BUF. The page uses top-3 WR projection volume for BUF, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with HOU ranked #6 vs WR and allowing 21.0 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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